Asean To Close Gap Between Current & Targeted Share Of Renewable Energy

By Massita Ahmad This article is an extract from a joint report titled "Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN: A REmap Analysis" by ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The report was launched on Oct 27, 2016 at the Singapore International Energy Week 2016. SINGAPORE, Nov 9 (Bernama) -- The ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) recently launched their joint report titled "Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN: A REmap Analysis" during the Singapore International Energy Week 2016. The joint report looked at ASEAN's renewable energy (RE) potentials, costs and benefits by applying IRENA's REmap analytical methodology and tools at a country level. Most importantly it provides detailed technological and sectoral options for ASEAN Member States to close the gap between the current and targeted share of renewables in the regional energy mix. ASEAN has set the aspirational target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from modern, sustainable renewable sources by 2025. The RE target of 23 percent was decided in the 33rd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting in Malaysia in 2015. THE RE TARGET The objective of achieving RE target of 23 percent implies a two-and-a-half-fold increase in the modern renewable energy share compared with 2014. "This target is well in line with the global thinking and ambition levels for renewables, but it will require a significant acceleration of RE deployment over the coming decade," said the report. In 2014, the ASEAN region's renewables share in total primary energy supply was 9.4 percent. By 2025 it is expected to increase to just under 17 percent if current policies and those under consideration are followed. Thus, the region must overcome a six percentage-point gap to reach its goal and the challenge is how to implement this 23 percent RE target. Doing so will require an understanding of what can individual countries contribute, what can different sectors contribute, and what are the costs and benefits of different technologies, said the report. THE RE TECHNOLOGY'S POTENTIAL The study had explored the potential for deploying RE technologies across the entire energy system of ASEAN Member States. It also quantified costs and investments, environmental benefits, and identified key challenges to ramping up renewables in the region. Before going further, the study had explored on the growing economies, population and energy demand. The population of the ASEAN region will increase from around 615 million in 2014 to 715 million by 2025. The economy will grow more than 5.0 percent per year resulting in a rapid rise in energy demand. The region will see 4.0 percent annual growth in energy demand until 2025, amounting to a rise of 50 per cent over 2014 levels. Electricity demand will double between 2014 and 2025. INSUFFICIENT FOSSIL FUEL The report highlighted that the region has insufficient indigenous fossil fuel resources to meet its growing energy demand and the share of imported fossil fuel will increase, which has important energy security implications. Energy demand for electricity production meanwhile will rise at the fastest pace, but fuel demand in industry and transport will also increase rapidly. Developments likely to occur based on current or planned policies or expected market developments known in this report as the Reference Case. Most of the demand will be met with fossil fuel, but the report also foresees significant growth in hydropower, geothermal power, and some forms of modern bioenergy for heating and cooking. However, rising fossil fuel demand will boost carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and exacerbate local air pollution. The report noted that this has global implications. The share of global energy consumed in the region will increase from 5.7 percent today to 7.5 percent by 2025. In the Reference Case, energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 61 percent and total energy-related CO2 emissions will amount to over 2.2 gigatonnes (Gt) annually in 2025. External costs related to air pollution from the combustion of fossil fuels will increase by 35 percent, from US$167 billion annually in 2014 to US$225 billion in 2025. This would equal around 5.0 percent of the ASEAN region's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, it said. RISING COST FOR ENERGY SUPPLY Therefore, the region will see rising costs for energy supply as well as rising costs from the negative effects from greater fossil fuel use in increasingly urban societies. ACE's Executive Director Dr Sanjayan Velautham said that this report was part of ACE's efforts to step up collaboration with international organisations to benefit from their expertise and enhance capacity building in the region's experience-sharing. "This fits particularly with the direction the 10 ASEAN Member States are heading to with renewable energy, as set under the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 2016-2025," he added. To date, the study has engaged all 10 ASEAN Member States and more than 60 experts through indepth technical workshops and review webinars. It has also received support from the Renewable Energy Support Programme for ASEAN, a project jointly implemented by ACE and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN is available on www.irena.org/publications, www.irena.org/remap, and www.aseanenergy.org/resources/publications/ --BERNAMA