"Golden Thai economy" foreseen in 2019

BANGKOK, December 6 (TNA) - The CIMB THAI Bank has foreseen that 2019 should be a golden year for the Thai economy, following the new general election set in November 2018. Amornthep Jawala, Senior Director for Research of CIMB THAI Bank, told journalists on Wednesday his bank's projection was mainly based on the fact that there will be no postponement of the new general election by late next year. "The real golden year for the Thai economy isn't 2018, CIMB Bank foresees it should be, instead, the year 2019 when there would be more investment projects and domestic consumption as measures that have been implemented by the present military government and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) should begin to bear good fruits", said Amornthep. The senior banker forecast that Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) should grow by about 4 per cent year-on-year in 2018, on top of 3.9 per cent year-on-year in 2017, boosted mainly by the country's export growth at about 4.5 per cent, with major Thai exports including automobiles and electronic products, and the growing domestic tourism, with the number of international tourist arrivals expected to be as high as 37.5 million. Besides, Thailand's imports should grow by 6 per cent year-on-year in 2018 due to the expanding domestic production, as well as public and private investment at 9.8 per cent year-on-year and 3.8 per cent year-on-year respectively, while the private consumption should further expand in the second half of 2018 on the condition that Thai exports would keep growing in the first and second quarters of next year. The senior Thai banker stressed that the country's new general election next year should mostly rely on the domestic political situation as it would be related to the confidence in the Thai economy of consumers and international investors, pointing out if the new general election was postponed due to any constitutional hurdle, the country's GDP should grow by 3.5-3.8 per cent year-on-year in 2018, if the NCPO was backed by political parties to carry on its administrative power after the new general election in late 2018, the country's GDP should grow by 3.7-4 per cent year-on-year and if the NCPO authorized the Thai Senate to regulate and oversee free and fair elections based on the full democratic system, the country's GDP should grow by 3.9-4.5 year-on-year in 2018. According to the senior banker, Thailand's key interest rate should be maintained at 1.50 per cent in 2018 to support the recovering domestic economy and inflation rate should also stand at 1.50 per cent, while the Thai currency should stand around 34 baht a US dollar as the US Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to raise its key interest rate for three times next year. (TNA)