ID :
389159
Fri, 11/27/2015 - 04:57
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IATA Air Passenger Forecast Shows Dip In Long-Term Demand

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 27 (Bernama) -- The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised its passenger growth forecast downwards to 7.0 billion by 2034 as compared with 7.4 billion it predicted before. The revised result reflects negative developments in the global economy that are expected to dampen demand for air transport, especially slower economic growth projections for China, it said in a statement. IATA said the five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the forecast period will be China (758 million new passengers for a total of 1.196 billion), the US (523 million new passengers for a total of 1.156 billion), India (275 million new passengers for a total of 378 million), Indonesia (132 million new passengers for a total of 219 million) and Brazil (104 million new passengers for a total of 202 million). Seven of the 10 fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa with the top 10 being Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Central African Republic, Serbia, Tanzania, Uganda, Papua New Guinea, Ethiopia and Vietnam. "Each of these markets is expected to grow by 7-8 per cent each year on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade," said IATA, which represents some 260 airlines comprising 83 per cent of global traffic. In terms of routes, Asian, South American and African destinations will see the fastest growth, reflecting economic and demographic growth in those markets. Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing route, at 13.9 per cent, followed by India-Hong Kong (10.4 per cent), Within Honduras (10.3 per cent), Within Pakistan (9.9 per cent) and UAE-Ethiopia (9.5 per cent), it said. China is expected to overtake the US as the world’s largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2029. In 2034 China will account for some 1.19 billion passengers, 758 million more than in 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 5.2 per cent, said IATA. Traffic to, from and within the US is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.1 per cent that will see 1.16 billion passengers by 2034 (523 million more than 2014). India will displace the United Kingdom as the third-largest market in 2026, with Indonesia rising to number five in the world. Japan, Spain, Germany and France fall relative to their competitors, Italy falls out of the top 10, while Brazil moves from 10th place to seventh. -- BERNAMA

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