Impacts from trade war foreseen for Thai, global economies

BANGKOK, November 20 (TNA) - Global economies, including the Thai economy, are foreseen to be affected by the ongoing trade war between the United States and China late this year and next year. Thosaporn Sirisumphand, Secretary-General of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), cautioned on November 19 that the US-China trade war, if escalated, should cause a slowdown to global economies, including the Thai economy, especially those relying on exports. Thosaporn projected that the world economy should, thus, grow by about 3.8 per cent year-on-year on average in 2019, from about 4 per cent year-on-year on average in 2018. For the Thai economy, the NESDB chief conceded that the ongoing trade war between the immense Chinese and the US economies has begun affecting the national economy, with the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of this year facing a slower growth at 3.3 per cent year-on-year, from its 4.6 per cent year-on-year growth in the second quarter, caused mainly by a drop in the country's export growth at about 2.6 per cent year-on-year during the July-September 2018 period, from the 12.3 per cent year-on-year growth during the April-June 2018 period. Besides, the domestic tourism faced a slowdown in the third quarter with its growth rate recorded at only 0.5 per cent year-on-year, compared with the 13.7 per cent year-on-year growth in the second quarter due mainly to a drop in visitors from China, Europe and Russia. The NESDB chief told journalists that NESDB has, thus, adjusted downward its projection of Thailand's GDP growth this year to about 4.2 per cent year-on-year on average, from its earlier forecast of 4.5 per cent year-on-year on average, as the country's export growth is now likely to stand at about 7.2 per cent year-on-year in 2018, from its earlier forecast at about 10 per cent year-on-year. In 2019, the NESDB chief estimated that Thailand's GDP and export growth should stand around 3.5-4.5 per cent year-on-year and 4.6 per cent year-on-year on average respectively. According to the NESDB chief, Thai exports that have been affected by the ongoing US-China trade war include electric circuits, parts of telecom equipment and electrical appliances and rubber products. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) also reported that the country's GDP expanded by 3.3 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, caused mainly by a slowdown in exports and the domestic tourism, assessing similarly that the US-China trade war has begun affecting the country's export and national economic growth. (TNA)