Private sector sees Thai economy to grow by 4.4-4.8% in 2018

BANGKOK, November 7 (TNA) - Thailand's three major private institutions have maintained their projection of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year at 4.4-4.8 per cent year-on-year and export growth at 8-10 per cent year-on-year on average. Kalin Sarasin, Chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand (BTT), told journalists that the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), comprising of his BTT, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and the Thai Bankers' Association (TBA), made the decision at its latest meeting in Bangkok on November 6. Kalin said the decision was based on an updated assessment that the Thai economy should keep growing in the last quarter of this year, boosted mainly by the accelerating disbursement of state budgets by government agencies, despite a slowdown in the third quarter of this year caused by a drop in the number of Chinese tourists and other short-term factors. Kalin acknowledged that such other positive factors as growing Thai exports and border trade, as well as a decision by the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to maintain its key interest rate at 1.50 per cent should also further generate the country's GDP growth in the rest of this year, while the inflation in 2018 should remain low at 0.9-1.5 per cent. For Thai exports alone, Kalin revealed that Tuesday's JSCCIB meeting considered the country's shipments of goods to foreign markets should further grow by 5-6 per cent year-on-year in 2019, on top of the 8-10 per cent year-on-year growth in 2018, citing such more challenges as negative impacts from the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, as well as a cut in trade privileges for 11 items of Thai exports by Washington under its generalized system of preferences (GSP) policy and, probably, reduced Thai exports to the United States, Mexico and Canada after the three countries' recent conclusion of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), or the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Meanwhile, the Thai central bank and the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) have updated their forecast of the country's export growth in 2018 to about 8 per cent year-on-year on average, from at least 9 per cent year-on-year, due mainly to negative impacts from the ongoing trade war between the immense Chinese and the US economies. (TNA)