Turkish Stream: Dream shattered by reality

Baku, Azerbaijan, July 25 By Aygun Badalova - Trend: After normalization of the bilateral relations between Turkey and Russia in June, official representatives from both sides made the statements, proposing some ideas for unfreezing the suspended Turkish Stream gas pipeline project. Refraining from concrete details, Russian and Turkish sides made it clear that the project’s implementation is of interest to both countries. Russian Gazprom spokesman, Sergey Kupriyanov, said that Gazprom is "open for a dialogue" on the Turkish Stream project. Turkey’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources told Trend that Turkey can unfreeze the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project initiated by Russia. Currently, this issue is under consideration, according to the ministry. “The exact date of unfreezing the project is yet to be determined,” said the ministry. The Turkish Stream project, which is meant to take the Russian gas to Turkey across the Black Sea, was suspended due to sharp deterioration of relations between Moscow and Ankara after the incident with downed Russian air bomber on the Turkish-Syrian border in November 2015. Despite the current obvious interest to implement the project, analysts nevertheless, think that there are serious difficulties for turning it into reality. Low oil prices, the global gas glut, and Western sanctions make gas revenues from Turkey important for Russia, Agnia Grigas, energy and political risks expert, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council believes. But, as she told Trend, in the current economic climate faced by Russia, financing and implementing the Turkish Stream is problematic. However, she says, Russia is likely to revive plans for the Turkish Stream when economic conditions change. Amanda Paul, analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC) and expert on Turkey also doubts that given the state of the Russian economy, Kremlin has billions of dollars to throw at this project. Russia itself also understands the problems it has.The deputy of Russia’s State Duma Sergei Obukhov sent an appeal to Russian president and prime minister calling to abandon the plans on imlementation of long term economic projects on Turkish territory, including the Turkish Stream project. He said that investing in such risky projects is not rational for Russia at the current financially difficult period. Experts also believe that the current political environment is not favorable for the project’s implementation as well. Tightening of domestic policy in Turkey after the failed coup attempt seems to point in the direction of worsening its relations with the West, Marco Giuli, an energy issues analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre told Trend. Main constraint for both parties to implement the project will be the position that the EU will take, Cyril Widdershoven, Middle East geopolitical specialist and energy analyst, partner at Dutch risk consultancy VEROCY and SVP MEA-Risk, believes. “In the light of Gazprom's growing hold on European gas imports, this could be the main issue. It also could conflict or constrain ongoing discussions on Nord Stream 2, as both projects are filling in some of the European gas demand, while both also are blocking parts of current gas transport via Poland or Ukraine,” Widdershoven told Trend. The recent military coup attempt in the country, threat of death penalties, or other issues will not be taken very lightly in Brussels and other European capitals, expert added. On July 15 evening, Turkish authorities said a military coup attempt took place in the country. Meanwhile, a group of servicemen announced about transition of power to them. However, the rebelling servicemen started to surrender July 16 and Turkish authorities said the coup attempt failed. Over 200 people have been killed in Turkey as a result of the coup attempt.