Brexit And The Morning After

By Wan A. Hulaimi LONDON, June 27 (Bernama) -- Friday morning on the day after, the sun shone on Little England. In this light, England - no, Britain - looks like it always has been a nation unto its own, proud, individualistic and separated from Europe by the Channel. It was a historic day for Brexiters and everyone in this sceptred isle; all that is still needed to make the separation complete is the invocation of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. Was the heavy turnout of our voters after a promising evening of London's stoutly voiced will to remain, a surprise at all? The campaigning went on far too long, for sure. The Remainers held sway at first, then, later in the evening, the Brexiters, a name given in the build-up to the referendum for EU rejectors, came out in force from deeper England and the Welsh valleys. That bucked the short trend back towards the in-people when the woman pro-Europe Labour MP Jo Cox was murdered by an alleged Britain-Firster. Early into the vote counting night, pundits were forecasting a narrow-margin win for the Remainers. They placed the Brexiters among the over forties and the immigrant bashers whilst the young and social-media savvy and the large bloc of immigrant voters (read London, read Birmingham) preferred the status quo. One of the accusations hurled against Brexiters was their worrying disregard for the experts' (economists and bankers mainly) pleas for them to choose Remain. On vote counting night, the experts were wrong from the word, go. At the end of the day, it was a clash of fears. Fear of immigration allegedly glued Brexiters together, and fear of economic consequences and the erosion of workers' and civil rights seemingly held the other. But Britain is a nation with many things on the boil. There are Britons who are like Groucho Marx, who will not join a club that will take them in as a member. There are true immigration fear-mongers, too, as UKIP, the maverick anti-European party unabashedly makes itself to be. There are people who are uncomfortable with the continuing expansion of the EU and how its Big Nanny bureaucratic apparatus has encroached into their lives. Europe has become one behemoth of a march to the tune of uniformity. There are still many Englishmen who wish to remain distinct individuals, in their bungling but very English ways. Why, Greenland did the same in 1982 and now look at Greenland, they are not quite down the sinkhole yet are they? No. Because, in a complex relationship between Greenland, Denmark and the EU, they finally drew up a treaty of special relationship between them and the departing member. Even then the going was not easy in the two-year winding down period made fraught by EU negotiators' stance of studied disdain. Britain, a bigger player, may hope for a similar treaty of special relationship too, once Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty is invoked and negotiations begin. The two years of browbeating for Greenland spun around fish. For Britain and the EU, things will be even more complex, with a greater range of topics to iron out in this aftermath of divorce. It will not be easy to negotiate a deal with someone you are leaving that will make you seem better off going it alone. Sensing this, Gus O'Donnell, former cabinet secretary in Tony Blair's Labour government has asked Prime Minister David Cameron not to rush to petition for Article 50. The EU's summer legislative programme looks full, a welcome relief for the departing Brits to sit back and re-examine what's at stake and what to take under special scrutiny. The presumed negotiator-in-chief David Cameron has, in the meantime, jumped ship, leaving the way open for the selection of a new Conservative Prime Minister in autumn. A determined Brexiter taking his place at the negotiating table would certainly add to the complexity. Once the Article is invoked, settlement is worked out in the two-year period mine, yours and ours together. But the Article can be invoked any time, not immediately. Parliament has to pass legislation and the longer the time in-between, the longer the time for strategic thinking. In the case of Britain's exit, two years for a settlement may look like an over-generous expectation. It will all, in the end, be in the letters and the law. A great part of the laws passed by the British Parliament have originated from lawmakers in Brussels. The task now is for Parliament to scrutinise every piece to decide which to dismantle if they choose, any remnants of EU legacy. It will not be an easy task if only because it will be a course without precedent. For British ministers, after the divorce, there will be greater work for them too in the making of details of legislation that once came from treaty obligations. Politicians will feature among the losers. Many members of the European Parliament will be dumped off the Brussels gravy train. Some parts of Britain will feel the real loss in European bounty. Caerphilly, a bellwether area in Wales, was a recipient of European funding. They voted out to the dismay of staunch fellow Celt pro-Europeans in Scotland. The first word to come out from Welsh politicians when the referendum results became certain: we want as much money from London as we got from the EU. In Scotland, Europeans to the core, sabres are now rattling once again for another referendum on its future in the United Kingdom. Malaysians here are waiting to see if being out of Europe will make Britain turn once again to the Commonwealth for its manpower. Their hope is that at least, it will make it easier for those who are already here, graduates and students, to seek employment once the Europeans have stopped coming. Since the influx of the latter, Britain had closed more doors to this traditional source of manpower. But for Britain's future, perhaps things will not be so gloomy. The two decoupling years will be difficult - pound tumbling, economic uncertainty and the long hangover of the morning after. But as former Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister) and Brexiter Nigel Lawson has said, Britain will not be lost without Europe because there is, out there, another part called the rest of the world. Writing in the Evening Standard (London's staunchly pro-Europe free evening newspaper), its more sober and consistently level-headed columnist, Simon Jenkins, in spite of finally opting for the UK to remain, still wrote: "Less regulation and fewer non-doms [non-domiciled] tax payers and bankers would be no great loss. "A liberated London would be no great loss. A liberated London would still draw economic activity from the rest of Britain and the rest of the world." -- BERNAMA