Geophysicist Seeks New Quake Forecast Research

Tokyo, Sept. 11 (Jiji Press)--Japanese geophysicist Seiya Ueda has proposed a new type of research for earthquake predictions that takes into account precursor phenomena that have not been used by seismologists. Earthquake predictions require studies into precursor events such as changes in ground currents and earth magnetism, as well as abnormalities in radio waves, said Ueda, an 83-year-old University of Tokyo professor emeritus and leading expert in plate tectonics, in a recent interview. But such phenomena were not investigated during past research to establish a method to predict earthquakes, Ueda said. "It was natural that seismologists looking into the mechanism of earthquakes had no interest," he added. To look into the precursor phenomena, studies extending into physics and chemistry are essential, but seismologists virtually monopolized the budget for quake prediction research, according to Ueda. In May this year, a Cabinet Office panel, chaired by Nagoya University Prof. Koshun Yamaoka, published a report concluding that it is difficult to forecast an earthquake with a high degree of accuracy. Japan started its quake prediction research in 1965, spending a lot of money on seismologic studies and to establish an observation network. But the country failed to forecast the January 1995 Hanshin Awaji earthquake or the March 2011 temblor that left more than 18,500 dead or missing. Ueda said he came to believe that predicting quakes would be possible about 30 years ago, when studying the results of research into earth currents by three Greek physicists. The ground conducts electricity to some extent, and earth currents change just before an earthquake, because electricity is probably generated when tectonic plates break, Ueda said. He said he managed to predict dozens of earthquakes over the past 30 years by observing changes in earth currents. In Japan, researchers outside the circle of seismologists are looking into precursor phenomena, but the number of such researchers is small and funds are scarce. "To save lives, it is meaningless to predict that the occurrence probability in a certain number of years' time is x pct," Ueda said, noting the importance of short-term forecasts for a week to a month ahead. He said he wants universities to establish courses on research for earthquake predictions in order to nurture researchers. Ueda said he has seen an increase in interesting research activities by seismologists that may contribute to quake forecasts. "We should not give up predictions because of the difficulties," he emphasized. END