Russian energy policy: conflict or cooperation with EU

ANKARA (A.A) - The Russian Federation, which has been confirmed the greatest natural gas reserve holder of the world and is second in the world in terms of petroleum production behind Saudi Arabia, utilizes this power as an instrument of foreign policy towards the European Union and other countries.  While the European Union is attempting to decrease its dependence on foreign countries and especially Russia within the energy sector, Russia implements new policies for the continuation of this dependence. The EU conducts 40 percent of its natural gas importation from Russia. On the other hand, the EU, which is the world's second largest regional natural gas market behind North America, fulfills 35-40 percent of its available gas need from its own resources. However, decreasing gas reserves and the rapidly growing dependence on importation pushes the EU towards pursuing different policies within the energy sector. Within this framework, the project which the EU had first implemented was declared to be the "EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan". The objective of this project was while increasing by 20 percent energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy resources by 2020, to reduce by 20 percent the emission of greenhouse gases. Although certain progress was not made in this direction during the three years that passed by, dependence for energy on Russia continued to grow through the projects that were signed. Some European officials classify this dependence not as one-sided, but as a mutual dependence, because while Russia is in the position of being the greatest gas supplier for Europe, Europe is in the position of being the greatest market for Russia. However, there are those who oppose this thesis. Considering the political situation in the Middle East and Africa which could constitute an alternative to Russian gas, and the Russian influence on Central Asian countries, the country which Europe could acquire natural gas from in the easiest and securest way is Russia.  Moreover, there is also an enormous market like China for Russia. From this aspect, the number of those who believe that Russia could in any event find a market to sell natural gas is a majority. However, we should not forget that in a situation like this, the energy leverage which Russia uses as an instrument of political pressure upon the EU will be eliminated. Another point is that a single EU could not be mentioned in regards to dependence on Russian gas. While Bulgaria, Poland, and Finland depend a hundred percent on Russian gas, Spain does not import gas from Russia. The dependency rate of countries like Germany, England and France is lower than a proportion of two-thirds compared to Eastern European and Baltic states. From this point of view, the EU does not implement a single energy policy against Russia and this situation somewhat causes Russia to "divide" the EU through its card of energy. Against each project which the EU attempts to implement in order to create an alternative to Russian gas, Russia responds with a counter-attack. The latest example of this situation was seen in the Nabucco-South Stream race. No progress can be made in the Nabucco project, planned on carrying the gas of Central Asia, the Caspian and Middle East to Europe through a pipeline passing through Turkey, which has remained on the table for a long time. There are two main reasons for no progress taking place in the Nabucco project: The first is that it is still uncertain whether countries like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which are to provide gas for this pipeline, will fulfill the needs. The purchaser of the gas also still not being determined constitutes the second main problem in this area. Since the proportions of dependency on Russian gas also vary for EU countries, a country like Germany that is expected to be the project's greatest financial provider, has made different statements. The reason is the North Stream project, which carries Russian gas through a pipeline passing from underneath the Baltic Sea to Germany. While EU countries besides Germany receive 70 percent of the gas from Russia through the pipeline passing through Ukraine, Germany eliminated the risk of natural gas between Ukraine and Russia being cut off due to any kind of problem with the North Stream project. Apart from these developments, by binding both Turkmen and Azeri gas to themselves through long-termed and very engaging contracts, Russia blocks them from providing gas to Nabucco. At the current point reached, it could be said that Russia is successful for the time being. While such a period is experienced within the Nabucco project, due to its problems with Ukraine, Russia attempts to eradicate the risk of the gas they sell to Europe being cut off almost every year. The greatest step they have taken in this direction has been the South Stream Project. The project which will supply Russian gas to Bulgaria and then to Middle Europe and Italy from there through the pipeline to pass underneath the Black Sea, deprives Ukraine of being in the position of a transit country. While this move strengthens Russia's position against the EU, the EU's dependence on Russia will also increase inevitably. All of these developments show that the EU will not be able to eliminate their dependence on Russian gas and that Russia will keep hold of the energy card for a longer time. (Analysis by Halit Gulsen)