Russia's economic problems as threat to stability in Central Asia

Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec.26 By Elena Kosolapova – Trend: Difficult economic situation in Russia in December 2014 became one of the most discussed topics in Russian media and Russian society. Nevertheless, the fall of ruble can no longer be Russia’s internal problem only and it is a major blow to the countries which are in some way associated with Russia. First of all, this concerns Central Asia, the relative well-being of which during the years of independence was mainly ensured with the money transfers of migrant workers in Russia. For instance, 1.23 million of 8-million population of Tajikistan worked in Russia as of 2013, according to the data from the Federal Migration Service of Russia. This is the official data which doesn’t include those who entered Russia earlier and those who have dual Russian-Tajik citizenship. Thus, the real number of Tajik migrants working in Russia can turn out to be much greater. The inflow of money transfers from Russia to Tajikistan stood at $3.587 billion in 2013, which accounts for 50 percent of the country’s GDP. However, the latest developments show that the Central Asian migrant workers will have to seek new sources of income soon. The ruble has fallen by almost twofold since early 2014 – from 33 rubles per dollar in early January to almost 60 rubles per USD in December. This means the same amount of decrease in the wages of migrants in dollars with which they feed their traditionally large families in the homeland. Moreover, many economists believe that the ruble will most likely continue to fall in 2015, as the titanic measures taken by Russia’s government to curb inflation, so far have had a poor outcome. The situation of migrants in Russia starting from early 2015 will also be complicated by the introduction of a compulsory paid exam of the knowledge of the Russian language, basics of legislation and history. Aside from that, in line with the new rules for registration of legal labor contract, the migrants in Russia will have to have voluntary health insurance policy and obtain a patent for a job. In addition, in December, the Russian Railways cancelled train travels to a number of neighboring countries, including those of Central Asia, which means more travel expences for the migrant workers. Thus, to get a job in Russia is more costly for the migrants, and it ultimately may simply not pay off. Especially, in times of crisis, the local population of Russia will be more willing to accept those positions that were previously occupied by the migrants. Meanwhile, the migrant workers, who usually work without any rights, being little protected by law, will increasingly face non-payment of wages, due to the employer’s bankruptcy or simply the employer’s decision not to fulfil obligations, brining the difficult economic situation as a reason. But it is unlikely that the Central Asian migrants will amicably depart for their motherlands. The jobs that haven’t been created there for over 20 years of independence will hardly appear at once in the near future. Therefore, the unskilled workers from Central Asia, while choosing between earnings in Russia, which fell sharply, and the complete lack of earnings in native village, will likely choose the former. It will be very difficult for them to find a job in some other countries of the region. Overpopulated China can not provide even its citizens with jobs. The Chinese even go to Tajikistan for seasonal work. They receive such a low salary, that even the Tajiks not spoiled by money, refuse to work for such a salary. The conflict-ridden countries, situated in the south of Central Asia and the Middle East, are not a potential labor market for migrants either. Perhaps, relatively stable Kazakhstan will be able to shelter a few migrants. But this country’s main source of income is natural resources. It may face the very difficult period if the current low oil price remains for a long time. Kazakhstan also feels the consequences of the economic downturn in Russia, which is one of its major trading partners. The trade turnover has reduced. The Russian companies’ investments in Kazakhstan have reduced. There are constant rumors about the upcoming devaluation of the national currency in the country. Though the government and the National Bank regularly deny these rumors, after the tenge devaluation in February 2014, people do not believe the authorities’ optimistic statements. Therefore, Kazakhstan is unlikely to offer migrants from neighboring countries better conditions than those in Russia. Unambiguously, crisis in Russia will lead to a sharp decline in the welfare of migrants and their families at home. We can only predict the further social upheaval in Central Asia. It is worth stressing that the entire situation occurs amid the withdrawal of the ISAF troops from neighboring Afghanistan and extremist groups’ intensified activity in the region. The migrants, who have lost their source of income, will likely to join the terrorist pseudo-religious groups despairingly. These groups have recently been actively recruiting fighters in the Middle East. Moreover, much money is offered for the service "in the name of religion". Today hundreds of people from Central Asia are fighting as mercenaries in Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and other conflict countries in the region. This information is confirmed by the authorities of these countries. Nevertheless, the consequences of the economic crisis in Russia can be in the mid-term period felt by the countries that don’t have direct relation to it. In particular, these are the EU countries, to which the Ukrainian, Moldovan and Armenian migrants, previously earning in Russia, can go. For instance, according to the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, some 43 percent of hired Ukrainian labourers abroad, were previously working in Russia. Given an even more complex situation in Ukraine, they will unlikely return home any time soon. But it is highly possible that they will be looking for a job in Europe - especially, if a visa liberalization agreement is reached, and even more the visa regime between the EU and Ukraine is abolished. If the refugees from South-East Ukraine will not be able to settle in Russia and in other regions of Ukraine, they can also be added to this figure. The number of Ukrainian refugees in Russia exceeds 830,000 people as of December, according to Russian Foreign Ministry. At the same time, Russians will also rush to Europe in search of work and better life. Thus, EU where the problems with migrants are already very serious, can face a new wave of several millions of migrants from the East soon. --- Elena Kosolapova is Trend Agency’s staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @E_Kosolapova Follow us on Twitter @TRENDNewsAgency