Russia, Iran, Turkey face differences on Kurds, Idlib, Israel as Sochi summit nears

MOSCOW, February 12. /TASS/. Disagreements concerning the situation in Syria’s Idlib, the future of the Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria and Israel’s airstrikes are piling up between the guarantors of the Astana process (Russia, Iran and Turkey), though there is hope that the Sochi summit, scheduled to take place on February 14, will help to at least partially resolve issues, said experts interviewed by TASS. Kurdish issue According to experts, the leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey - Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani and Recep Tayyip Erdogan - will need to discuss the situation in northeastern Syria since the three countries have different views on ways to resolve the Kurdish issue. "They will discuss what will become of Syria’s northeast and whether a security zone will be created there, which is what Turkish authorities want, and if so, whose forces will be deployed there," Head of the Center for the Near and Middle East at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Vladimir Fitin said. According to Senior Research Fellow of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Dolgov, Ankara will continue to decisively defend its stance on the matter. "Turkey has its own interests as far as the Syrian conflict goes, it has been rather decisively advancing them, often times ignoring the interests of Iran, Russia and Syria," Dolgov said. "The summit’s participants will definitely discuss the Kurdish issue. Turkey considers most Kurdish units as terrorist groups and affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party, deemed as a terrorist organization by Ankara," he added. At the same time, Fitin stressed that the future of the Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria was closely linked to the United States’ plans to withdraw troops from Syria. "The main question concerns the situation in Syria following the planned US troop pullout because it is still unclear when and at what scale it will happen. Given the unpredictability of the current US authorities, Washington can hardly be expected to take consistent steps," the expert pointed out. Idlib demilitarization Doglov went on to say that since Turkey has not yet fulfilled its obligations concerning the establishment of a demilitarized zone in the Idlib province, this issue would be touched upon at the Sochi summit. "According to an earlier agreement, it is Turkey’s responsibility to improve the situation in this area, create a demilitarized zone, eliminate radical units affiliated with the Islamic State terror group (outlawed in Russia) and ensure the withdrawal of heavy weapons," the expert explained. "However, we can see that Jabhat al-Nusra (outlawed in Russia), which is linked to the Islamic State, has taken down other groups and now controls the situation in Idlib," he said. "Turkey is either unable or unwilling to fulfill its obligations under the previously reached agreements but the issue is expected to be finally resolved at the summit," he added. Fitin also noted that the three leaders would certainly try to find ways to resolve the situation in Idlib. "Turkey is not eager to conduct a military operation there and risk the lives of its soldiers. Besides, if the Turks launch a military operation, they will have no reason to oppose the Syrian army’s actions to clear the area of terrorists," he said, commenting on the situation in northeastern Syria. Iran and Israel When speaking about the summit’s potential agenda, Dolgov pointed to the standoff between Iran and Israel. "Iran will raise the question of Israel’s activities, as it has come to a military confrontation between Israel and pro-Iranian forces in Syria. Tehran is concerned about Israel’s aggressive actions and hopes to get Moscow’s support. Iranians are dissatisfied that Russia lets Israel get away with airstrikes on pro-Iranian units in Syria," he explained. Dolgov emphasized that "there is a number of very difficult issues concerning the Syrian conflict and the interests of Iran, Russia and Turkey, but all these issues can be resolved if there is enough political will." "Groundbreaking decisions are unlikely to be made. There will be progress but reaching a final solution is a long process," he concluded. Astana trio meetings The first meeting of the Astana trio (Russia, Iran and Turkey) was held in Sochi on November 22, 2017. The second summit took place in the Turkish capital of Ankara on April 4, 2018. The three leaders adopted a joint statement following the meeting, expressing determination to continue their cooperation. The third Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit on resolving the Syria issue was held in Tehran on September 7, 2018. Read more