U.S. think-tank expert says Turkey's three-point plan for Libya is worth considering

WASHINGTON (A.A) - 29.04.2011 - An expert of U.S. think-tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said on Thursday that Turkey's three-point plan for Libya was worth considering.
Henri Barkey defined the plan as interesting and serious in a Q&A posted on the think-tank's web-page.
"While Turkey is late to the party, the three-point plan is still an interesting and serious idea that is worth considering," Barkey said.
Barkey said today, Turkey was an important commercial power, but its economic well-being was largely dependent on exports.
"This means that when Turkey designs its foreign policy, it has to be mindful of its commercial interests and investments," Barkey said.
Barkey said Turkey's policy had been to push for greater integration with the Middle East, wanting more trade, bilateral agreements, and visa-free regimes, and Turkey had had to create strong bonds with many—though not all—existing regimes.
"Paradoxically, these linkages have made Turkey into a status-quo power, unwilling to see dramatic change. And not surprisingly, first Libya, and now Syria, is creating serious headaches for Turkey," he said.
Barkey said Libya's civil war was a serious crisis for Turkey, and at the onset of the fighting, there were around 25,000 Turkish workers in Libya and billions of dollars' worth of contracts, particularly in the construction sector.
"This and the prospect of an uncertain future without Gaddafi is why Ankara first objected to a no-fly zone and any form of military intervention to support the Libyan rebels," he said.
Barkey said Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's objections to, and then vacillation on, the no-fly zone over Libya cost Turkey, and anti-Turkish demonstrators—notably in Benghazi, Libya's second-largest city—burned the Turkish flag and tried to overrun Turkey's consulate.
"While Turkey is late to the party, the three-point plan is still an interesting and serious idea that is worth considering. In fact, many of its ideas form the basis of the plan recently submitted by African countries," he said.
The three-point plan includes the establishment of a humanitarian corridor to allow assistance to enter, a ceasefire in the cities surrounded by the regime's military forces, and negotiations that will lead to some kind of democratic transition.
Barkey said Erdogan had become one of the most popular leaders in the Arab street, but claimed that Turkey's desire for good relations with all of its regional neighbors was clearly running into trouble. 
"Turkey has to reckon that in some cases of the Arab Spring, it just may be on the wrong side of history. Syria is the ultimate test case," he said.
Barkey said Ankara made its greatest efforts with Syria to improve relations, but with the revolts in Syria spreading, Turkey was now desperately trying to figure out what to do.
"Just like (Syrian President Bashar al-) Asad, the Turkish government did not fully comprehend the depth of the malaise in Syria; Ankara does not want Asad to lose power. However, unlike the Iranians, it has been counseling Asad to reform," he said.
Barkey said in the event of such developments, Turkey might face an onslaught of refugees from Syria since Syrians could enter the country without visas.
"If Turkey has learned a lesson in Libya, it is that it cannot appear to be siding with the regime; this is why the Turkish government has tried to engage al-Asad in order to convince him to ease the draconian controls over society and politics. At this stage, there appears to be no good outcome for Turkey in Syria," Barkey said.
Barkey defined Turkey as a prosperous and democratic state—albeit with some serious internal problems—and thus certainly a model many countries in the region would like to emulate.
"On the other hand, it is difficult to see how regional states can replicate its development," he said.
Barkey said Erdogan was probably right when he argues that Turkey was not a model, but a source of inspiration.
"Regardless of whether Turkey can serve as a role model or not, there is no question that the rise of Turkey's ruling AK (Justice & Development) Party appeals to the Arab world. It stands in contrast to previous U.S. exhortations of the Turkish model for the region that fell on deaf ears precisely because of Turkey's overbearing military," Barkey said.
Barkey said, "today there is a political party in Turkey that has succeeded in pushing the military back into its barracks—admittedly with the help of the military's own errors. As a result, Turkey enjoys the ability to speak with authority in the region; irrespective of domestic controversies, its government appears to be the genuine item. AK Party's success has given Turkey a certain amount of cachet and influence in the region."
"It (Turkey) had a powerful hand in the regional poker game, but the Arab Spring has suddenly changed all the rules of the game," he said.
Barkey said the long-term trajectory for Turkey was still that its influence would grow, but in the short term, Turkey was in a difficult position.
"Turkey faces the same contradictions of other countries. Ironically, as much as Turkey thought it was on the side of change, it has become a status-quo power; herein it may come to resemble the U.S. position in the region. One can see how Turkey has become a mini-America in the region with its own vested interests, commercial concerns, and close ties with regimes. Change, therefore, may not be good for its economic and commercial interests. Turkey's challenge is not that different than the one faced by the United States, he said.
Commenting on whether or not Turkey was at risk of protests or incidents similar to those in Arab countries after June 12th parliamentary elections, Barkey said "Kurdish problem was the most serious problem the country faced" and "would likely come to a crisis point after the elections."
Barkey claimed that "Turkey did have its own time bomb that was waiting to go off --the Kurdish issue."
"It is possible that Kurds will emulate nonviolent protests and civil disobedience, as seen in Egypt's Tahrir Square," he said.
Barkey said, "Turkey approaches the region with a great deal of hubris; it claims it understands the region better than the West. But in reality, the Arab Spring has demonstrated that Ankara isn't doing any better than the West."
"Ankara needs to come to grips with the fact that we are all in the same boat. And at the same time, there is certainly something to be gained by working together. The Arab Spring has provided an opportunity for stronger cooperation between Turkey and the West," he said.
Barkey said Syria could emerge as the most important test case, and suggested that an American-Turkish crisis group should be created to monitor events in Syria, exchange information and even draw up contingency plans.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States. Founded in 1910, its work is nonpartisan and dedicated to achieving practical results.