FOCUS: Hatoyama put on the line with few gains on U.S. trip+

WASHINGTON, April 14 Kyodo -
When he last visited the United States nearly seven months ago, Japanese Prime
Minister Yukio Hatoyama was in the limelight on his diplomatic debut as the
head of a new government launched after a historic national election.
This time out, however, he toured Washington when voters at home and
policymakers in the U.S. capital alike appeared frustrated with a seemingly
endless debate on the fate of a U.S. Marine base in Okinawa Prefecture. Now
that his recent trip is over, it is seen by many that Hatoyama went home
empty-handed, leaving his future hanging in the balance.
When Hatoyama was swept into power last September, the United States ''expected
that he would soon learn the importance of Japan-U.S. ties and realize what
taking power means,'' Koji Murata, professor of politics at Japan's Doshisha
University, said.
As it has yet to happen, however, ''confidence among Washington officials in
the Hatoyama administration is now in tatters,'' he said.
Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan scored a sweeping victory in the general
election last August, ending the almost unbroken rule by the Liberal Democratic
Party for more than half a century.
High expectations that the new government will pull the country from political
and economic stagnation have now turned into disappointment.
But it is a foreign affair -- the feud over where to relocate the U.S. Marine
Corps' Futemma Air Station -- that has become the biggest challenge for
Hatoyama.
Although several relocation plans have been floating within the
almost-seven-month-old coalition government, there are little signs of his
finding a feasible alternative option to settle the matter as his self-imposed
deadline of May is drawing near.
During his two-day stay in the U.S. capital through Tuesday, the DPJ leader had
no opportunity to hold a formal bilateral meeting with U.S. President Barack
Obama, who hosted the Nuclear Security Summit.
What was given to the increasingly embattled prime minister was a chance to
speak to Obama for only 10 minutes during a working dinner Monday for the
summit, when they were seated next to each other.
''I told him that the Japan-U.S. alliance is extremely important and that we
are in the process of making efforts toward resolving the Futemma relocation
issue,'' Hatoyama told reporters after the dinner. ''I said we will settle it
by the end of May.''
While arguing that he pursues more equal and closer ties with the United States
than when the LDP was in power, Hatoyama has repeatedly said since taking
office that the Japan-U.S. alliance forms the cornerstone of Tokyo's foreign
policy. But his flip-flops and the lack of coordination within his coalition on
the Futemma issue have put bilateral relations to a severe test.
Some critics say the United States has apparently been reluctant to arrange any
formal bilateral talks until the Hatoyama government comes up with a concrete
candidate site for relocating the Futemma airfield.
U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos told Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada earlier
this month that Washington is not ready to launch working-level talks on the
relocation issue, which Tokyo had been hoping to begin this week.
Yet the United States seems to be hesitant to adopt a too hard-line attitude
against the DPJ-led government, as the 12-year-old party holds an outright
majority in the powerful House of Representatives and will remain in office for
another three-and-a-half years barring a snap election.
Whether Hatoyama's government can survive is a different story.
Public support ratings for his Cabinet have plummeted to about half of the 70
percent logged at its launch last September, ahead of the upcoming election for
the House of Councillors expected in July.
''Prime Minister Hatoyama opened Pandora's box,'' Murata said. ''The problem of
this issue is that the government is trying to find 'the best' solution
although there isn't any such thing.''
''What the premier can do is to avoid the worst-case scenario,'' Murata said.
He referred to the possibility that the Futemma facility will remain in its
current location, a scenario that could disappoint local people and severely
undermine U.S. trust in Japan.
Following months of confusion over the relocation issue, Hatoyama said in
parliament last month that he has his ''own plan in mind.''
Analysts doubt that he truly has a secret plan on top of the other ideas which
have already triggered opposition from local residents and officials in
Washington. Some analysts even say Hatoyama's days are numbered, and about 47
percent of voters polled in the latest Kyodo News survey argue that Hatoyama
should step down if he fails to keep his promise to settle the Futemma dispute
by the end of May.
''It is unlikely that the Obama administration will throw a lifeline to
Hatoyama,'' whose support ratings have plunged below 30 percent in some recent
public polls, said Kazuhiro Asano, professor at Sapporo University.
''That means he will be unable to resolve the Futemma issue and will have to
step down,'' Asano said.
The row involves a 2006 accord between Japan and the United States to transfer
the base in a residential area to a less crowded area in another city of the
southernmost prefecture as part of a broader realignment for U.S. forces
stationed in Japan.
Hatoyama has been reviewing the bilateral accord agreed to by a previous
LDP-led government in a bid to ease the burden on people in Okinawa, which has
hosted a large bulk of the U.S. forces, but Washington has pressed Tokyo to
stick to the original deal.
==Kyodo