FOCUS: S. Korean ship sinking continues to cast shadow overFOCUS: S. Korean ship sinking continues to cast shadow over 6-way talks

GYEONGJU, South Korea, May 16 Kyodo -
Uncertainty lingers over prospects for the stalled six-party talks on North
Korea's nuclear ambitions, as key countries involved in the multilateral
framework await an announcement on whether the North was involved in the
sinking of a South Korean navy ship in March.
Reflecting the complicated situation, the foreign ministers from Japan, China
and South Korea stopped short of agreeing to seek an early resumption of the
six-way talks aimed at denuclearizing North Korea when they gathered in the
South Korean city of Gyeongju on Saturday.
A rise in tension in the region may be unavoidable if the outcome of the
investigation determines, or strongly suggests, North Korea's involvement in
the incident, with South Korea possibly raising the issue at the U.N. Security
Council to seek sanctions on the North.
Japan has been clear that it will side with South Korea, which has said that
determining the cause of the incident must come before a resumption of the
denuclearization talks that involve the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and
the United States.
But Japan and South Korea are likely to have difficulty in taking coordinated
steps with China, North Korea's traditional ally, depending on the outcome of
the investigation, a senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official said.
''It's like when dealing with North Korea's nuclear problem, Japan takes a
tough stance and China prefers a less tough position,'' said the official,
speaking on condition of anonymity. ''Such failure to take concerted action
between the three Asian countries may be seen again over the sinking
incident.''
The differences were revealed in Saturday's meeting, with Okada saying that the
six-party talks should be put on hold if Pyongyang is found to have been
involved in the incident, and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi emphasizing
the importance of seeking an early resumption of the talks.
Okada emphasized to reporters during his two-day trip to South Korea from
Saturday that Japan and South Korea are ''completely the same'' in their stance
and that the two countries as well as the United States will continue to
communicate well together.
But some Japanese experts say Tokyo may have to be careful not to ''misread''
how tough South Korea actually wants to be against North Korea should
Pyongyang's involvement in the incident become clear.
Kan Kimura, a Kobe University professor specializing in Korean studies, said
that while the matter is of serious concern to the South Korean people, their
government may fear that being too resolute over its response to the incident
would not serve its interests in the end.
''Simply put, South Korea does not want to fall into the same situation as
Japan in dealing with the issue of North Korea's past abductions of Japanese
nationals,'' Kimura said. As he sees it, Tokyo apparently lost influence in the
six-party talks for being too focused on the abduction issue.
''South Korea may not be thinking of taking as tough a stance as Japan expects,
so I think Japan will have difficulty in finding its own position,'' said
Kimura, who currently serves as a visiting scholar at the University of
Washington.
In any case, Tokyo's role in the discussion appears to be limited for the time
being, as the Japanese government is busy devoting its energy to settling a
dispute over where to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps' Futemma Air Station in
Okinawa Prefecture in the face of tumbling support rates.
''Among Japan, China and South Korea, Japan is the only country that is
becoming a lame duck government,'' Kimura said. ''The Japanese government is
too tied up with the Futemma issue and does not seem to have time to work on
North Korean issues.''
Doubts over Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's leadership, including the
way he has handled the Futemma issue, have dragged down his support rating
ahead of a House of Councillors election in the summer. Public support for the
Hatoyama Cabinet stood slightly above 20 percent in a Kyodo News survey in late
April.
But leaving the six-party talks stalled would also make it difficult for Japan
to seek progress in the abduction issue, an emotional topic for the country.
No development has been seen over the issue in recent years, with Pyongyang yet
to fulfill a promise made in August 2008 to reinvestigate the abduction cases.
Japan has said that at least 17 Japanese were abducted to North Korea in the
late 1970s and early 1980s. The issue has been a major obstacle to the
normalization of bilateral ties.
''This issue needs a certain momentum to make it move forward...but there does
not seem to be any such move from North Korea at this moment,'' the senior
foreign ministry official said.
If the sinking incident develops into discussions on whether to impose
additional sanctions on North Korea, the chance for holding negotiations
between Tokyo and Pyongyang on the abduction issue would apparently become
slim.
Apart from Japan's dilemma, even some South Korean diplomatic sources do not
seem to have a clear picture on how the sinking incident could develop from
now.
''We are not certain whether we can maintain our cooperation with the United
States and Japan if the outcome of the investigation is not convincing enough
to show that it was an attack by North Korea,'' one source said.
The United States, for its part, may have concerns that a further delay in the
six-party talks would allow North Korea to keep on advancing its nuclear
programs. The last time the talks were held was in December 2008.
Indicating the unclear prospects, a South Korean government official said,
''It's not like we have in mind what move to make next.''
==Kyodo