POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NIGHTMARE IN THAILAND CONTINUES By D.Arul Rajoo

BANGKOK, Dec 1 (Bernama) -- Over 1,000 flights cancelled, 300,000 foreign
passengers stranded, 88 commercial planes grounded at a single airport, one
million workers likely to lose jobs, tourists arrivals to drop by 50 per cent --
such gloomy statistics grow as Thailand counts the massive damage to its economy
and global image.

Above all, in the eyes of the rest of the world, the Thai government is
crumbling and law and order is fragile as protesters, armed with sticks,
slingshots and helmets, are chasing away riot police from two major
international airports and the prime minister's office.

The main gateway to the "Land of Smiles" has been shut down for a week
while
Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat is holed up in the northern city of Chiang Mai.

For the past six months, it has been a political nightmare for Thai
politicians, especially those from the government side, and ordinary citizens as
they watched the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) mount marathon street
rallies that began on May 25. Their protests escalated with the seizure of
Government House, which is the office of the prime minister, on Aug 26 and the
takeover of two key airports on Nov 24.

For many Thais, they feel that only one person can save this country from
the brink of civil war, and that is the highly revered King Bhumibol
Adulyadej.

They feel that even a whisper from the world's longest reigning monarch for
61 years will do wonders.

The king will celebrate his 81st birthday on Friday and the kingdom of 65
million people will be watching for every word and nuance during his customary
speech on the day before the celebrations.

"No doubt His Majesty is very concerned with the well-being of the people
and has always been there to help them. But I think it's too burdensome to pass
the buck to the king," said Dr Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, a former Member of
Parliament and a prominent economist.

Although the situation in Bangkok looks fragile, he said that the rival
groups should come to their senses, set aside their differences to find an
amicable solution and not trouble the king.

Still, Dr Kriengsak, who contested in the recent race for the Governor of
Bangkok said, no matter what happened, the Thais would always look up to their
king and they were hoping that he would step in to resolve the conflict and
political impasse that had dragged on for several months.

He had intervened on several occasions to end several hostilities before,
including one in 1992 when he summoned coup leader Suchinda Kraprayoonand and
the leader of the pro-democracy movement, General (Rtd) Chamlong Srimuang, to a
televised audience. Chamlong is now one of the key leaders of PAD.

Some predict that a quick solution is in sight as early as Tuesday when the
Constitution Court delivers its verdict on the dissolution of three parties in
the coalition government -- the People Power Party (PPP), Chart Thai and
Matchimathipataya.

The decision by the court may satisfy PAD but could be regarded as a
"silent
coup" by its rivals.

A key pro-government figure and host of "Today's Truth" TV programme, Veera
Musigaponggu, claimed that PAD was secretly promised that the three parties
would be dissolved if they agreed to re-open the airports.

PPP's predecessor, the Thai Rai Thai (TRT) party, was dissolved by the same
court in 2007 and its 111 executives banned for five years.

Some insiders say that Somchai, the brother-in-law of beleaguered former
prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, may dissolve the parliament on Tuesday before
the court sits.

PAD came to the fore in Thai politics in 2006 when its massive rallies led
to the military ouster of Thaksin, the only premier to be elected twice by the
Thai electorate. But after his allies won the December 2007 election, PAD
surfaced again to fight what it claimed was the government being a "nominee
government" of Thaksin since it is being helmed by brother-in-law
Somchai.

The movement, which has shown enormous strength and tenacity, has a
well-financed structure and strong support from Bangkok's middle class and elite
to stay afloat for the past six months.

PAD says its street protests are to protect the monarch and create a new
political order to stamp out corrupt governments.

After failing to dispose of Somchai's government till now, the protestors,
mostly clad in yellow, a colour associated with love for the royal family,
seized his temporary office at the Don Muang airport and then closed down the
Suvarnabhumi Airport in their final battle to finish off Thaksin's
legacy.

"We have laid the groundwork for the past six months and we cannot
stop now as Thaksin is the symbol of corruption. We felt sorry for the people
affected by the airport closure...but this is for the long-term benefit of the
country as it can prosper more without corrupted governments," a hardcore PAD
supporter said at the Suvarnabhumi Airport.

This former businessman said his tasks included setting up for free pro-PAD
ASTV satellite dishes in urban poor areas and so far, 50 dishes had been
distributed to create better awareness about the movement's struggle.

But for many, the crux of the current headache afflicting the Thais is
Thaksin's 76 billion baht (US$2.13 billion) currently frozen by the
court.

Thanong Khanthong, the editor of The Nation, one of Thailand's major
English
language newspapers, wrote that the Thai political crisis had been singularly
revolving around this pot of gold of 76 billion baht.

"Pojaman (Thaksin wife) almost landed in Thailand (last Thursday) along
with
Somchai to pave the way for her ex-husband's return. Somchai would like to hang
on his premiership as long as possible to prepare for Pojaman's return. Pojaman
would like to clear all the cases against her and her husband and get a chunk of
her family's 76 billion baht, now being frozen at the banks, back in return for
Somchai to dissolve Parliament. But this deal could not get through," he
wrote.

Both Thaksin and Pojaman were sentenced to jail for power abuse and tax
charges respectively. The couple had jumped bail and fled the country but
recently shocked the nation with their divorce announcement in Hong Kong, which
many believed was orchestrated to regain their frozen money.

The country is increasingly divided between pro and anti-government groups,
between the red (pro-government) and yellow (anti-government) shirts.

In fact, many are avoiding both colours to distance themselves from PAD and
the pro-government United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship
(UDAD).

"I love my King very much and I always wear yellow shirts on Monday. But
now
I have stopped using them because I don't agree with what the PAD is
doing...it's giving a very bad image to the country and dragging down the royal
family," said a Thai executive who hoped that an amicable solution can be found
as a birthday present for the king on Friday.

In fact, he said, there were messages going around asking people to wear
white as a sign of neutrality.

While the street protests did not disrupt the daily lives of ordinary
Thais,
the airport closure is causing havoc to the tourism and related industries as
well as businesses relying on the movement of air cargo.

Losses had been estimated at between 134 billion (US$3.76 billion), and 215
billion baht (US$6,050) and the economic growth projected for Thailand for next
year is at 1.9 per cent, from four per cent this year.

Electronics and computer companies are losing one billion baht a day,
putting to risk the jobs of 106,000 workers in the industry while orchid growers
are facing losses of 100 million baht (US$2.81 million).

Thai Airways, the country's national carrier, is the worst affected. With
thousands of its passengers stranded, losses had swelled to about one billion
baht in termS of ticket sales, cargo and catering, as well hotel bills to
accommodate their stranded guests.

Postal and courier companies are also receiving the brunt too, with over
100,000 letters and publications serviced by Thailand Post stranded at
Suvarnabhumi Airport while the hotel industry is beginning to feel the
pinch.

"There are many guests who want to go home but cannot do so. So they are
staying for now...we have some cancellations for the coming days but
fortunately, not many cancellations yet for the next few weeks or for year end,"
said a hotel manager in the Silom area here.

But the gloomy picture is already there. Phang Nga tourism association
president Krit Srifah said many tourists had cancelled their trips and this
would definitely affect the industry there which usually generated one billion
baht during the high season from November to March.

At one zoo in Chonburi Province, a marketing manager said his zoo was
almost
deserted.

"We need 100,000 baht daily to feed our 500 tigers. Even before the airport
closure, the management had announced they wanted to lay off 20 per cent of the
workers and cut 20 per cent of the salaries for the rest," he said.

The lucrative exhibition and meeting industry is another early casualty as
several major events have been cancelled, including the Seventh Annual Asia
Business Leaders Awards while foreign exhibitors are shying away.

"The impact is even worse than a coup. I have seen many coups in the past
20
years but this is terrible. The impact will be great because the economy is
already on the downturn due to the recession in the United States and now this,"
said Malaysia Thai Chamber of Commerce president Yeap Swee Chuan.

Yeap, who is also the president and chief executive officer of the
public-listed Aapico Hitech, said the latest protest was bound to kill the
economy, especially the tourism industry, and reduce the people's purchasing
power while the automotive sectors would be less affected as 60 per cent was
export-oriented.

"Big businesses will surely suffer as foreign businessmen need to come here
to do the negotiations, unlike small ones which can be done through
tele-conferencing or the telephone. I am really frustrated as my business plan
has gone awry," he said.

Thailand is the world's 14th biggest vehicle producer with over one million
annual vehicle production and exports to over 100 countries.

But there is still hope, said Dr Kriengsak, who believes that the
repercussions would only be felt more for the short- and mid-term if a solution
can be found soon, or else the flow of foreign direct investment and confidence
could be severely affected.

"I think the hope is still there if some kind of mechanism is put in place
to find some convergence and bring the warring parties to the negotiation
table." he said, pointing to the army as the key to providing the
solution.

The army has so far resisted helping the police disperse the protesters at
the Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports, and some analysts believed that another
coup, the 19th in the country's history, may be in the offing but so fat, the
army generals have not decided on anything as drastic as that. (US$1= 35.6543
baht)
-- BERNAMA