(News Focus) N. Korea may try to surprise outside world with diverse missile tactics

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, Feb. 6 (Yonhap) -- North Korea may test-fire short-range missiles near a
fragile western sea border with South Korea to bolster its saber-rattling
campaign, officials and analysts say, as the world focuses on a high-profile
launch pad on the east coast.
Tension remains high on the divided peninsula as North Korea is believed to be
gearing up to test-fire its longest-range missile, the Taepodong-2, at the
Musudan-ri launch site on its east coast.
South Korean officials say preparation for the launch could end in a month or
two, perhaps even earlier as the North has improved its missile technology.
Defense officials also said this week the apparent saber-rattling could be
coupled with a move aimed at catching the South off guard.
"We are intensifying our monitoring of the west coast because we believe that is
where North Korea could fire short-range missiles in a surprise move," a defense
official told Yonhap News Agency late Thursday, speaking on condition of
anonymity because the information is classified. Other officials confirmed the
comment.
North Korea has repeatedly threatened an armed clash this year near the maritime
border where two naval clashes turned deadly in 1999 and 2002.
The North claims the border -- known as the Northern Limit Line drawn by the
U.S.-led United Nations command at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War -- should be
drawn further south.
Seoul said it will respond "resolutely" to any aggression near the demarcation
line. The two sides remain in a technical state of war because their fratricidal
conflict ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty.
"Missiles could be launched near the NLL because that is the area North Korea
wants to make a statement on," Paik Hak-soon, a senior analyst at the Sejong
Institute think tank, said.
Cho Young-kil, South Korea's defense minister from 2003-2004, said the communist
North could deploy tactics aimed at causing disarray among its opponents.
"We must stay ready for all different missile scenarios, including a provocation
near the NLL," Cho, now an analyst at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs,
said, adding any provocation "over the border will trigger South Korea to respond
in full."
The North Korean campaign comes as the relations between the two Koreas are
running at one of their lowest points in decades. Since President Lee Myung-bak
took office in Seoul early last year with a pledge to get tougher on Pyongyang,
North Korea has reacted bitterly, expelling large numbers of South Korean
officials from cross-border facilities and scrapping all reconciliation
agreements.
North Korea is believed to have some 600 Scud missiles with a range of up to 700
kilometers, and 100 Rodong missiles -- retrofitted Scuds -- that have an
estimated 2,000km range. The isolated state also developed the Taepodong-1 which
can fly up to 2,500 kilometers.
The Taepodong-2, the latest model believed to be capable of reaching the west
side of U.S. territory, failed soon after take-off in a July 2006 test launch,
outside intelligence officials say.
The missile, with an estimated range of up to 6,700 kilometers, has been designed
to carry a nuclear warhead, weapons experts say. But intelligence sources play
down the likeliness of the North having obtained the needed technology.
samkim@yna.co.kr
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