(News Focus) N. Korean leader displays his power with military shakeup

By Kim Hyun
SEOUL, Feb. 12 (Yonhap) -- In a rare extensive military shakeup, North Korea said
its leader Kim Jong-il appointed a new defense minister and chief of General
Staff, spawning speculations about his intentions as cross-border tension mounts.
Unusual in that it was even announced, the reshuffle reported by the state-run
media on Wednesday has drawn attention because of the sensitive timing.
Tension along the western inter-Korean sea border remains high and intelligence
officials in Seoul and Washington believe the North is preparing for a long-range
missile test.
The new top military brass appeared to be combat savvy and are known to be close
confidants to Kim, analysts said. The shakeup should not be overstretched to
portend imminent military action, they cautioned, but seems to carry an intended
message -- the aging leader is still in firm control of the North's military even
after a reported stroke in August, and any important decisions, including missile
activities and the naming of his successor, will be his own.
Cha Doo-hyeogn, a North Korea specialist with the Korea Institute for Defense
Analyses, a state-run think tank, said the North Korean leader maintains his
absolute power by regularly changing the top military leaders.
"Kim promotes the military as the nation's top priority, but he knows the danger
of it. Characteristic of a regime controlled by one man, the leader does not give
all the power to a single person," Cha said.
"With the shakeup, Kim Jong-il is showing that he is powerful and is the only one
who can decide on military action and a successor," he said.
North Korean reports gave no background information, but the new appointees are
believed to be veteran soldiers credited for their combat strategies than for
their political connections, analysts said. Kim Yong-chun, new minister of the
People's Armed Forces of the National Defense Commission, equivalent to South
Korea's defense minister, orchestrated the North's military when its navy clashed
with South Korea along the volatile western sea border in 1999 and 2002, leaving
scores of soldiers dead or wounded on both sides.
The western sea border was unilaterally drawn by the U.N. Command following the
Korean War, and Pyongyang insists it should be redrawn farther south.
Little is known about another new official, Ri Yong-ho, the new chief of the
Korean People's Army General Staff, the counterpart to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of
Staff. Ri's predecessor issued a warning on Jan. 17 that the North's military
will take an "all-out confrontational posture" against South Korea if Seoul
adheres to its hardline policy.
Pyongyang further escalated military tension early this month by declaring a 1991
non-aggression accord void. It now appears to be preparing to test-launch a
long-range ballistic missile that technically can reach the western coast of the
United States.
Intelligence sources said Pyongyang has improved its technology since the last
test in 2006, when an earlier version of the same missile failed approximately 40
seconds after launch.
Seoul analysts cautioned against reading too much into the shakeup. Paik Hak-soon
of the Sejong Institute, an independent think tank, said while the timing is
noteworthy the North Korean leader customarily changes officials to keep their
power in check.
"Who takes the posts is not so important, as the military is controlled by the
party in the North Korean system," he said. "It would be extreme to connect this
to a missile decision or a border clash."
Seoul officials described North Korea's announcement of the shakeup as "unusual."
It may be an internal message aimed at drawing citizens' attention to the
heightened tension with South Korea, said Lee Sang-min, an official with the
Unification Ministry in charge of North Korean politics.
More reshuffles may follow as North Korea holds parliamentary elections on March
8, in which some analysts say young technocrats will be promoted to prepare for
the post-Kim Jong-il era.
Kim turns 67 on Tuesday next week. Intelligence sources told Yonhap in January
that Kim has named his third and youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor.
hkim@yna.co.kr
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