ID :
45494
Sat, 02/14/2009 - 08:41
Auther :

N. Korea eyes key events outside as it apparently inches toward missile test: experts

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, Feb. 13 (Yonhap) -- A trio of events will most likely factor into North
Korea's decision on whether and when to test-fire its suspected long-range
missile, officials and analysts said Friday.

As U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prepares to leave for her first Asian
trip next week, which will focus heavily on the North's nuclear weapons program,
observers here say Pyongyang may be hustling to test-fire its most advanced
missile, the Taepodong-2.
Others say the communist state may launch the suspected multi-stage rocket to
coincide with the first anniversary of the inauguration of South Korean President
Lee Myung-bak, whom Pyongyang accuses of reversing rapprochement on the divided
peninsula and calls "human scum."
The Feb. 25 anniversary will be followed less than two weeks later by the North's
rubber-stamp elections, during which leader Kim Jong-il is almost certain to
reaffirm his position as chief commander.
Kim reportedly suffered a stroke last summer. Outside officials say he is
recovering quickly and has even reasserted his stranglehold on the isolated
regime by replacing his top military posts with hawkish generals this week.
The weeks leading to the March 8 elections "will prove to be a tense time for
South Korean troops already on alert," a defense official here said Friday,
speaking on customary condition of anonymity.
Another official said the South Korean military is even considering bolstering
its defensive assets along a western sea border, where North Korea has threatened
an armed provocation. He asked for anonymity because of policy at the Ministry of
National Defense.
"North Korea is most likely to test-fire its missile as it nears the elections,"
said Kang Sung-yoon, chief North Korea scholar at Seoul's Dongguk University.
Kang said a missile test would be aimed at shoring up Kim's confidence as he
leads his impoverished state amid a months-long deadlock in multilateral talks
aimed at ending his nuclear ambitions.
"By test-firing after Clinton's visit and Lee's anniversary, Kim would kill three
birds with one stone," Kang said. In other words, the political impact of a
launch that takes place between or before the two events would fizzle out before
the elections.
Brian Myers, an American professor on North Korean affairs at Dongseo University
in Busan, said a test-launch would "happen at a time when North Korea can make it
clear" how badly frayed the ties between the Koreas are. Busan is 450 kilometers
southeast of Seoul.
North Korea said last month it was abandoning all its political deals -- including
a landmark non-aggression pact of 1991 -- with South Korea.
The announcement came after Pyongyang cut off all dialogue, expelled South Korean
officials from cross-border facilities and allowed a signature inter-Korean tour
project to be suspended.
Pyongyang says Lee is responsible for the deterioration in ties because the
conservative has aligned with U.S. hard-liners and continues to seek to topple
the communist regime.
"The domestic propaganda and invective against Lee has been so extreme and
violent that (North Korea has) placed themselves under great pressure to carry
through with their threat," Myers said.
Kim Yeon-cheol, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Korea University, agreed with
other analysts that Pyongyang will carefully monitor U.S. moves before it goes
ahead with any provocation.
But he said any sign of stubbornness on the part of the U.S. after Clinton ends
her swing through Asia will trigger Pyongyang to immediately go ahead and launch
a missile, theoretically capable of hitting U.S. territory.
"North Korea knows it has to give Obama some time," Kim said, referring to the
U.S. leader who took office just several weeks ago and has yet to confirm his
pick for special North Korea envoy.
Intelligence officials believe North Korea test-fired a Taepodong-2 missile which
crashed shortly after takeoff in July 2006. The action prompted the United
Nations to condemn the North, but ironically led to a breakthrough in six-way
denuclearization-for-aid talks.
Experts say the North probably won't be able to get ready to launch its missile
by Feb. 16, its "dear leader" Kim's nationally celebrated birthday, for technical
reasons.
It has yet to transport its suspected missile to a nearby launch pad on the east
coast, South Korean and U.S. officials say, even though essential components are
being assembled.
Fuel injection, the final phase of preparation, took two to three days in 2006,
according to an intelligence source, because the model is believed to be designed
to travel far -- 6,700 kilometers. Another source said last week the North is
likely to have improved its technology to expedite the process.
Information is scarce on the rocket that is designed -- but not yet able -- to
carry a nuclear warhead. Experts are split on whether a Taepodong-2 missile on
standby can withstand its volatile and acidic fuel for a lasting period of time.
North Korea conducted its first known atomic test in October 2006. The Koreas
remain in a technical state of war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a
truce rather than a peace treaty. The six-party talks involve the two Koreas, the
U.S., Japan, Russia and China.
samkim@yna.co.kr
(END)

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