(News Focus) Clinton touches on North Korean succession in sensitive time

By Kim Hyun
SEOUL, Feb. 20 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went further
than other U.S. officials in touching upon a possible succession situation in
North Korea on Friday, saying the sensitive topic is "something you have to think
about."
The top U.S. diplomat affirmed that current leader Kim Jong-il is Washington's
negotiation partner, but her unusual remarks on uncertainty in Pyongyang
suggested that the new U.S. government is taking into account what could happen
in the post-Kim era as it shapes policy on North Korea, analysts said.
Clinton "was acknowledging that Kim Jong-il's health problems create uncertainty
over leadership transition due to the opaqueness of North Korea and that no
formal succession plan has been announced," Bruce Klinger, a North Korea
specialist with the Heritage foundation, said. "That said, her comments seem to
go further than other U.S. officials in expressing concern over the potential for
a failed succession."
Washington has revived consultations with Seoul after the conservative Lee
Myung-bak government took over last year to prepare for possible post-Kim
scenarios, Klinger said.
"U.S.-South Korean contingency planning withered under President Roh Moo-hyun but
has been resumed under Lee Myung-bak's administration," he said.
On her flight to Seoul from Jakarta on Thursday night, Clinton said that if there
is a succession in the North "that creates more uncertainty" and that "the whole
leadership situation is somewhat unclear."
In a press conference with her Seoul counterpart Yu Myung-hwan on Friday, Clinton
repeated her view. "When you are thinking about the future dealings with the
govenment that doens't have any clear succession -- they don't have a vice
president they don't have a prime minister --it's something you have to think
about," she said.
What would happen in the post-Kim era has been a common topic in expert circles
since the leader reportedly suffered a stroke in August. But few officials in
Seoul and Washington have openly commented on the succession issue, comments on
which may provoke Pyongyang.
Contrary to Clinton's remarks, Seoul's Unification Ministry said on Friday that
North Korean leader Kim is in full command and that all information indicates he
is well enough to run the country.
"The North Korean leadership is stable and he is overseeing state affairs in a
normal manner," ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun said.
The spokesman also said there is no sign yet that North Korea is officially
preparing for a succession.
But signs of an imminent power transfer abound. North Korea holds parliamentary
elections next month, which some analysts say will lay the groundwork for the
post-Kim era. The leader has also been promoting his closest aides to the
military leadership, including O Kuk-ryol, who helped Kim win military support
during his own succession process in the 1980s.
North Korean state-run media have recently emphasized the themes of "bloodline"
and "inheritance." Sources told Yonhap last month that Kim named his third and
youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor.
Richard Bush, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies in the
Brookings Institution, said a succession process may now be in the works.
"It seems that decisions are being made to prepare the transition," he said.
Bush said a new North Korean leadership will likely adopt an even tougher stance
than Kim "because the new North Korean leadership may feel very insecure and
"proposing moderate initiatives may not be 'politically correct.'"
With regard to how North Korea will respond to Clinton's remarks, Seoul analysts
were discordant.
Paik Hak-soon, a senior research fellow with the independent Sejong Institute,
said Clinton's comment on other nation's leadership was "inappropriate" but it
did not seem to be an intended message to Pyongyang.
"If that was a calculated comment, it could signal that the U.S. will wait until
the North Korean succession process is fully done, which will be inappropriate
and unpleasing to North Korea," Paik said. "But that policy is not the Barack
Obama administration's policy. Clinton, who was formerly a politician and not a
career diplomat, seems to have said it, not really thinking how it may influence
North Korea."
Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea studies professor at Dongguk University, said North
Korea won't respond to Clinton's remarks, as the succession issue is considered
taboo in the communist country.
"It is unusual that a U.S. official talked about it, but I don't think North
Korea will show a sensitive response to it. It is considered irreverent in North
Korea even to talk about succession," Koh said.
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)