(News Focus) Proliferation fears rise following N. Korea's rocket launch

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, April 5 (Yonhap) -- The rocket launch by North Korea deepens international
proliferation concerns, experts said Sunday, as the impoverished state may seek
to capitalize on the massive data generated by its space vehicle that can be
converted into a missile.
North Korea says it has prepared the rocket to send a satellite into orbit, but
neighbors suspect it may be a cover to test Pyongyang's longest-range ballistic
missile.
They fear North Korea's proven rocket may be converted into an intercontinental
ballistic missile if North Korea decides to expand its missile arsenal or tout it
for sale.
North Korea denies any collaboration with other countries in missile development
or trade, but outside officials and experts say intelligence points to extensive
cooperation that goes back decades.
CIA reports have particularly noted longstanding Tehran-Pyongyang ties in
ballistic missile development, describing North Korea as a key supplier of
related technology to Syria and Pakistan as well.
"North Korea has been... the principal supplier to Iran of ballistic missile
technologies," then-Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International
Security Robert Joseph said in 2006.
North Korea's collaborators "could benefit from the large amount of data flowing
from the computers used for the launch," Hong Il-hee, senior rocket researcher at
South Korea's state-funded Korea Aerospace Research Institute, said.
"Such data provide an invaluable chance for scientists to improve their knowledge
just as effectively as they have test-launched their own rocket," he said.
Quoting a government source, Japan's Sankei Shimbun newspaper recently reported
that a delegation of 15 Iranian experts has been in North Kora since early March
to observe the rocket launch. The Iranian embassy in Tokyo denied the report.
Using a two-stage rocket called Safir-2, Iran put a communications satellite into
orbit on Feb. 2, just weeks before North Korea announced its own launch plan.
Citing his latest report on relations between North Korea and Iran, Baek
Seung-joo, chief analyst at the state-funded Korea Institute for Defense
Analyses, said the two countries have accelerated their cooperation in
information sharing.
"They defy traditional norms where countries hold on to their rocket technology
for a certain period of time before sharing it," he said.
Iran and North Korea are believed to have begun sharing missile technology when
Pyongyang exported about 100 missiles to Tehran in the late 1980's, Baek said.
Initial joint research dates to the early 1990's, and the sides appear to have
moved into long-range ballistic technology in the early 2000's, he said.
"What's notable is that the intervals between exchanges of expertise are being
shortened as each year passes," he said, adding Iran appears to be emerging as
much a benefactor to North Korea as it has been a beneficiary.
On Saturday, Chosun Sinbo, a pro-North Korea newspaper published in Tokyo, said
"exports of rocket technology and commercialization of satellites could yield a
series of economic benefits" for Pyongyang.
The paper is widely seen as upholding North Korea's official line.
Sohn Myung-hwan, a rocket scientist leading a private research center, said human
resources top the list of benefits missile cooperation yields.
"Pyongyang has a limited source of nations it can ask for help in training its
rocket experts," he said. "Personnel exchanges are crucial when a nation develops
technologies as complex as those involved in rockets and missiles."
Senior U.S. officials have told lawmakers that Iranians witnessed the launch of
North Korea's Taepodong-2 missile in July 2006. The test failed as the missile --
theoretically capable of hitting Alaska and Hawaii -- crashed soon after takeoff.
Andrei Lankov, a former student at Pyongyang's top university, said the
relationship between North Korea and its alleged missile collaborators is
propelled by a long history of partnership.
"They have worked together for over 20 years, so they will continue," Lankov, who
teaches history at Seoul's Kookmin University, said.
But, he added, "the missile program can perhaps be halted, if monetary payments
and political concessions are acceptable for Pyongyang."
Kim Yeon-cheol, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Korea University, said the
communist state may be cautious in marketing its rocket technology because its
political enemies, including South Korea and the U.S., will almost certainly
crack down.
The U.S. has operated a Proliferation Security Initiative campaign against
transport of such technology and related devices since 2003, which South Korea
may fully engage in after the launch.
"Rather than moving right ahead with selling the rocket knowhow, North Korea will
wait and see whether it can use it to negotiate a deal with its enemies for
higher prices. That's more hassle-free for the isolated state," he said.
samkim@yna.co.kr
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