(News Focus) Rocket launch adds to U.S. foreign policy burden, complicates

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, April 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's launch of a rocket will seriously
undermine U.S. efforts to resume international talks for the nuclear
dismantlement of the reclusive communist state, experts said Saturday.
The launch will also lead to the resumption of missile talks suspended a decade
ago, adding to the foreign policy burden of the fledgling U.S. Barack Obama
administration, which is struggling with the North Korean nuclear threat and
other security challenges in Afghanistan and the Middle East as well as the worst
recession in decades, they said.
"The test adds another issue to an already challenging security agenda in
Northeast Asia," Scott Snyder, director of the Center for Korea Policy at The
Asia Foundation, said. "Issues must be addressed in a comprehensive fashion,
including how to reverse nuclear and missile proliferation, which also must take
into account global dimensions."
Evans Revere, president of The Korea Society, repeated Snyder's theme.
"North Korea probably believes that since the United States is interested in
adding missiles to the agenda for bilateral and multilateral talks, testing this
missile system now adds to the eventual price that the U.S. would have to pay to
convince North Korea to cease its ballistic missile testing," he said.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently said she was ready for missile
talks with North Korea, suspended a decade earlier under the administration of
her husband Bill Clinton, although she did not elaborate on whether they would be
incorporated into the multilateral nuclear talks.
During talks initiated after North Korea fired its first ballistic missile in
1998, Pyongyang demanded Washington pay up to US$1 billion annually in
compensation for halting its long-range missile exports, deployment and
development.
The U.S. believes the launch of what Pyongyang insists is a satellite is cover
for a ballistic missile delivery test, as the same delivery system is used for
both satellite and missile launches.
"By proceeding with a satellite launch, Pyongyang can test and improve some of
the technologies, materials, and systems that can eventually be used to enhance
its missile launch capability," Revere said.
North Korea claims it put a small experimental satellite into space in 1998, but
the U.S. sees it as a failed attempt.
The North made another launch in 2006, this time admitting it was a ballistic
missile, but the missile fizzled shortly after lift-off.
Experts believe North Korea has since greatly improved its ballistic missile
capability, noting the successful orbiting of a satellite recently by Iran which
has been developing missiles with the North's support for past decades.
"When Iran launched their long-rang Safir missile in February, they used North
Korean missile components and technical support," Bruce Klingner, senior fellow
at The Heritage Foundation, said. "And Pakistan's mid-range Ghauri missile, which
can carry a nuclear warhead, is actually a renamed North Korean Nodong."
Klingner feared the devastating effect of the North Korean missile capability
combined with a nuclear warhead, noting recent reports that U.S. experts believe
North Korea has built or is attempting to build nuclear warheads small enough to
fit on its ballistic missile arsenal.
North Korea detonated its first nuclear device in 2006 and is believed to possess
several nuclear warheads, amid conflicting reports on the North's ability to
miniaturize it for missile delivery.
Obama met with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in London Thursday on the
sidelines of the G20 economic summit, where they agreed they will refer any
rocket launch by North Korea to the U.N. Security Council for possible punitive
action. But Chinese President Hu Jintao stopped short of doing the same while
meeting with each of the the two leaders during the G20.
Revere predicted difficulties in gaining support from China and Russia -- who
hold veto powers in the U.N. Security Council -- for further sanctioning of North
Korea.
"Obtaining Chinese, and perhaps Russian, agreement for a new UNSC resolution
containing additional measures against North Korea will be very difficult," he
said. "Perhaps it will be possible to get a UNSC President's statement, including
a call for the enforcement of existing sanctions deriving from UNSC Resolution
1718."
Resolution 1718, adopted after North Korea's nuclear test in 2006, bans any
ballistic missile activity by North Korea and imposes a trade embargo for North
Korea on missile parts and other weapons-related products as well as luxury
goods. Its enforcement, however, is believed to have been largely neglected by
member states due to a lack of strong implementation measures.

Gordon Flake, executive director of the Mansfield Foundation, said North Korea's
assertion that the launch is of a satellite rather than a missile, and the
Chinese and Russian acceptance of that position would complicate the prospects
for a rapid and unified response from the UN Security Council.
"At the same time it is not clear what would be gained by passing a new
resolution when the existing UNSCR 1718 has been largely unimplemented," Flake
said. "It may be a far better strategy for work toward a Presidential Statement
condemning the launch, calling for a end to any further missile related
activities, and a return in earnest to the six party talks."
The North's rocket launch, in the meantime, will likely considerably delay any
resumption of nuclear talks as it should be seen as a hard blow to the Obama
administration, which has not yet formulated its North Korea policy.
"The missile launch is only one of several factors that will probably contribute
to a toughening of the Obama Administration's posture vis-a-vis North Korea,"
Revere said, noting the launch and other hostile acts "reflect Pyongyang's
unwillingness to respond positively to the overtures President Obama and his
administration have been making towards Pyongyang."
"Ironically, the arrival of the Obama Administration is the best chance that
North Korea has ever had to resolve the fundamental issues between itself and the
United States, and North Korea has responded to this opportunity by seeming to
reject it," he said. "If and when talks resume, they will take place in a much
more tense and difficult environment."
Snyder, however, was more optimistic, saying the North's rocket launch was
motivated by domestic factors, and with the lapse of the motivation, talks should
resume.
Speculation is rife that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il needs to consolidate his
power for a possible dynastic power succession to his third son, Jong-un. The
reclusive North Korean leader is believed to be recovering from a stroke he
reportedly suffered last year.
"The DPRK decision to conduct a launch has been primarily driven by domestic
political factors, although there are also secondary objectives that North Korea
may have perceived as potential collateral benefits from such a launch," Snyder
said. "North Korea is conducting classic prenegotiation maneuvers."
hdh@yna.co.kr
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