(News Focus) N. Korean rocket launch to prompt toughened missile defense

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, April 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's rocket launch has generated a fresh
security challenge for neighboring Asian countries and the U.S., who could step
up their missile defense in response despite skepticism over its effectiveness,
analysts said Sunday.
Earlier in the day, North Korea fired a rocket that it said was designed to carry
a satellite into orbit. Neighbors, including South Korea and Japan, say it was
likely a disguised test of ballistic missile technology.
Japan had deployed missile defense systems across its territory in a measure
aimed at protecting its population from possible debris falling from the rocket
that flew over its airspace.
The country has stepped up joint development of missile defense with the United
States since 1998 when North Korea test-fired a Taepodong-1 missile over its
territory.
But it has conducted only one successful test of its ship-to-air interceptors.
Critics say Japan has yet to sharpen its missile defense despite decades-long
investment.
"The criticism will subside for some time to come now that there is a fresh and
clear threat for Japan to parry," said Kim Hak-seong, a regional security expert
at the Graduate School of Peace and Securities Studies in the city of Daejeon.
"Japan will be the most upset" by this rocket launch, Jing-dong Yuan, head of the
East Asia Nonproliferation Program (EANP), said, adding the U.S. may also feel
compelled to toughen its missile defense.
"There is really nothing more it (the U.S.) can do except to strengthen missile
defenses to protect the U.S. homeland, its troops in the region and its allies,"
he said.
Scientists say the North Korean rocket could easily be converted into a
Taepodong-2 missile with an estimated range of over 6,700 kilometers --
threatening Alaska and Hawaii.
But missile defense would come at a hefty price, literally, for countries caught
in the grip of the global economic crisis, including two of the largest
economies, the U.S. and Japan.
U.S. lawmakers and military commanders recently estimated that missile defense
spending would near US$10 billion a year and called for "networking" its missile
warning systems with other countries.
"They are converging on a sentiment that points to burden sharing," Kim
Yeon-cheol, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Korea University, said, arguing the
U.S. will increasingly rely on Japan and South Korea.
South Korea has yet to engage in missile defense development, but could now
consider joining Japan and the U.S. while cautiously examining costs, Kim added.
"Both Japan and South Korea will opt for strengthening their defensive rather
than offensive capabilities at this point," Yuan, the EANP chief, said.
Andrei Lankov, a Russian-born historian at Seoul's Kookmin University, warned
such a move may be an overreaction.
"The launch signifies a certain increase in the threat level, but the North
Korean missiles are too primitive. It takes days to prepare one for a launch, and
reliability is low," he said.
Critics also say Japan may be trying to use the North Korean rocket launch to
justify expansion of its military, even though the general population may not
feel as threatened by North Korea.
"Both South Korea and Japan have already been under the threat and coverage of
North Korea's short- and medium-range missiles," Yuan said, adding he doubted
such missile defense technology could effectively address North Korea's
long-range missile threat.
samkim@yna.co.kr
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