ID :
54800
Fri, 04/10/2009 - 17:02
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(News Focus) Kim Jong-il paves way for successor: analysts

By Kim Hyun
SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-il had two aims in
appointing his brother-in-law to the country's powerful military board and
reshuffling its lineup, analysts said Friday -- to cement his standing and
solidify leadership that could function once he is out of the picture.
Kim, 67, now back in control after an alleged stroke last summer, considerably
amplified the National Defence Commission (NDC) in a meeting of the newly elected
parliament Thursday, increasing the number of its members to 13 from 8 and
bringing in new members from outside the military.
Most notably, Kim's brother-in-law and right-hand man, Jang Song-thaek, made it
into the military board along with his own close aide.
"Overall, the power of the National Defense Commission was strengthened," Seoul's
Unification Ministry spokesman, Kim Ho-nyoun, said in a briefing.
Kim came back into the public spotlight as the country's rubber-stamp parliament
reappointed him as chairman of the NDC, in his first major appearance since his
reported stroke in August.
His movements at the meeting appeared easier and more brisk than those shown in
photos months earlier. The state-run Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station aired
footage of Kim walking to his seat, clapping his hands and turning a page in a
document at an assembly hall.
After a months-long absence from public view, Kim wants to reassert his unmatched
power and at the same time prepare a ruling system that will follow him, Seoul
analysts said. Jang, who married Kim's younger sister, Kim Kyong-hi, in 1972 and
currently is a powerful department director of the Workers' Party, is believed to
be close to the leader's sons. He was spotted increasingly frequently with Kim
during the leader's field trips this year, an indication he may have been tasked
with overseeing state affairs.
"Jang's appointment definitely means the post-Kim era (is coming)," said Cha
Doo-hyeogn, a North Korea expert with the state-run Korea Institute for Defense
Analyses.
By placing Jang on the NDC, which has so far been dominated by military
officials, the North Korean leader set up a comprehensive system that combines
the party and the military and can legitimately help run the country when he is
unable to, Cha said.
"Kim wants to keep the military in check and secure loyalty to both the military
and the party," he said. "Secondly, after his death or when he is incapacitated,
the National Defence Commission can rule on his behalf or help his successor run
the country."
Analysts have said Jang may play a caretaking role for Kim's successor, who will
possibly be one of his three sons. Some sources say Kim has named his youngest
son, Jong-un, in his mid-20s, as his heir but Seoul intelligence officials say
there is no hard evidence to prove it.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul,
said North Korea may start officially promoting Kim's successor after 2012, a
target year for becoming a "powerful" nation and the centenary of the birth of
Kim's father and the country's founder, Kim Il-sung.
"Jang's foremost role for now will be stabilizing Kim's regime," Yang said. "At
the same time, he may organize a loyal group for a successor so that the heir can
be officially proclaimed after 2012."
Analysts noted there was no major reshuffle of the new parliament, as old members
stayed on, a sign Kim wants to keep the status quo while grooming his heir.
In what appeared to be a response to South Korea's conservative Lee Myung-bak
government, the North abolished a committee on economic cooperation with South
Korea from its Cabinet, which was set up amid friendlier ties in 2004. Major
inter-Korean economic ventures were shut down last year as political relations
fell apart. The North also threatened the last remaining such project, a joint
industrial complex in the North's border town of Kaesong, last month.
"Our view is that North Korean thoughts about inter-Korean relations were
reflected" in the abolishment of the committee, said the Seoul ministry
spokesman, Kim Ho-nyoun.
Thursday's appointments also revealed North Korea's views of its recent rocket
launch. Kim promoted Ju Kyu-chang, a party member who played a key role in
preparing the launch as a missile expert and who stood next to Kim in a
photograph taken in celebration, as a member of the NDC.
North Korea has claimed Sunday's launch was a "historic" success that put a
communications satellite into orbit, while outside monitors have said the payload
splashed into the Pacific Ocean.
South Korea, the United States and Japan believe the rocket launch was actually a
test of the North's ballistic missile technology and have called for the U.N. to
stiffen sanctions against the isolated state. But China and Russia, both
permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, appear reluctant.
North Korea timed the rocket launch with the opening session of its new
parliament, making "fireworks" for Kim as he started his new term, said Kim
Yong-hyun, a North Korea professor at Dongguk University.
With a new government now in place, the North Korean leader will now likely focus
on Washington, possibly using two American journalists detained in the communist
country as leverage to induce direct negotiations, he said.
"The Supreme People's Assembly meeting was the climax of North Korean politics in
April," the professor said. "North Korea wants dialogue, and the U.S. would not
insist on the resolute position that it is now taking in terms of coordination
with South Korea and Japan."
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)

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