(News Focus) Prolonged stalemate expected as N. Korea and U.S. assess post-launch ties

By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, April 14 (Yonhap) -- The often-troubled six-way talks on North Korea's
nuclear program stand at a crossroad again, as the unpredictable communist plays
a game of diplomatic brinkmanship.
In a counter-punch to the U.N. Security Council's tough reaction to its rocket
launch earlier this month, the North said Tuesday it will "never" return to the
negotiating table.
The threat to terminate talks by the North is not its first, but the latest
message represents the strongest yet, hinting at a drawn-out stalemate, if not
complete abandonment of the disarmament talks
While South Korea's top nuclear envoy took the North's announcement seriously, he
refused to call the current situation a "crisis" for the six-way talks.
"I think it is part of a North Korean-style game," Wi Sung-lac told Yonhap News
Agency. He said the stalemate is a chapter in a long process of dealing with the
defiant North. "Now is a confrontational phase that could be turned into a
dialogue phase some day," he said.
His comments reflect Seoul's stance of not overreacting to the North's every threat.
In fact, when North Korea conducted a nuclear test in October 2006 despite
warnings from regional powers, many expected the demise of the six-way talks.
But North Korea and the U.S. resumed contact in a deal brokered by China, just
three weeks later in Beijing. The six-way talks also involving Russia and Japan
were reconvened in December.
If history is any guide, North Korea is likely to come back to the talks after a
confrontational period in the wake of its provocative rocket launch.
North Korea watchers say Pyongyang is aware that it has more to lose than gain by
terminating the six-way talks, in which its dialogue partners promise huge
economic and political incentives for denuclearization.
South Korea's conservative government is determined to take a long-term approach
toward Pyongyang, seeking the resumption of the talks and also pushing for
sanctions under a U.N. resolution. Seoul is also about to announce full
participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led
anti-proliferation campaign strongly protested by North Korea.
Analysts said the ball lies between the U.S. and North Korea after the North's
rocket firing, the U.N. reaction, and Pyongyang's response.
"The North Korean foreign ministry's statement is viewed as mainly directed at
the U.S.. It describes Japan as a pawn of the U.S. It says the U.N. unilaterally
accepts the U.S. opinion," Dongguk University's Prof. Ko Yu-hwan said.
He expected there will be talks between North Korea and the U.S. at some point to
pave the way for the resumption of the six-way talks. "It is uncertain which side
will begin the initiative."
Mitchell Reiss, former senior American diplomat, pointed out that the U.S.
administration of President Barack Obama remains committed to the multilateral
nuclear talks.
"It is difficult to say at this point precisely how the U.S. will react, but the
Obama administration has made clear that its priority is getting the North to
return to the six-party talks," said Reiss, who is now vice-provost of
international affairs at the College of William and Mary.
An unexpected breakthrough may come from U.S. efforts to win the release of the
two female American journalists held by North Korean authorities. The two, while
traveling to the porous China-North Korea border area on a news assignment , were
arrested last month for allegedly intruding into the North.
The U.S. may send a high-level envoy to North Korea to discuss their release,
which will provide a face-saving chance for bilateral talks.
"What was a simple consular incident at first has developed into a high-profile
political and diplomatic case," a South Korean foreign ministry official handling
North American affairs said.
Experts are also paying close attention to the role of China, North Korea's
closest ally and the largest donor to its impoverished neighbor.
China, which chairs the six-party talks, is apparently eager to salvage the
negotiations.
"North Korea's adamant threat of quitting the six-way talks may reflect its
complaint over China's approval of a strongly-worded U.N. Security Council
statement," a diplomatic source said. "China will try to appease North Korea in a
bid to bring North Korea back to the talks."
lcd@yna.co.kr
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