ID :
62458
Tue, 05/26/2009 - 09:51
Auther :

Obama faces tough challenge from stubborn Kim Jong-il over nuke ambitions

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, May 25 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Barack Obama faces tough challenges
from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il following Pyongyang's second nuclear test
Monday in nearly three years, which came amid already growing skepticism about
Kim's intent to denuclearize.

Some experts say the test represents a shift in Pyongyang's policy: from
brinkmanship for further concessions to consolidating its status as a nuclear
power. This could suggest to Obama that he must seek tougher sanctions to
expedite the impoverished communist state's collapse.
Others question China's role in the six-party talks on ending the North's nuclear
programs, and accuse Beijing of being complacent with the status quo in order not
to allow a unified Korea allied with the U.S., which would be a drain on its
regional influence. They call on Obama to engage the North directly.
Obama's supporters say there is still a chance the North will return to the
multinational nuclear talks, which have plodded sluggishly for the past six years
without a significant breakthrough.
"There are two reasons" North Korea conducted the second test, said Richard Bush,
director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies in the Brookings
Institution.
"First is to condition the Obama administration to take a softer line in the
six-party talks," he said. "The second is to establish the credibility of its
nuclear deterrent."
Bush added that North Korea is looking to get out of the six-party talks and deal
with the U.S. bilaterally, but said that "won't work."
Obama's administration has been firm on continuing the six-party talks while also
seeking direct engagement with Pyongyang.
Bush expected Obama will "likely seek tougher enforcement and possible expansion
of existing sanctions" for the nuclear test, and that the six-party talks will
"be in suspension until North Korea sees the value in returning."
The U.N. Security Council is convening later in the day to seek further sanctions
on North Korea for the nuclear test, following those imposed after North Korea's
April 5 rocket launch, which Pyongyang insists put a satellite into orbit.
Bush stressed the importance of approaching the North "on a multilateral basis,
particularly to include China."
China, North Korea's biggest benefactor and closest communist ally, has played a
pivotal role as the host of the six-party talks in breaking deadlocks over the
past years, but not without complaints that Beijing has more to do.
In a statement from Shanghai, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Monday, "These
reported tests underscore the message our congressional delegation planned to
deliver to top Chinese government leaders during our meetings later this week:
the Chinese must use their influence to help bring North Korea to the table for
the six-party talks. Today's announcement makes that need all the more urgent."
Daniel Blumenthal, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said
in a contribution to the Washington Post that Obama needs to engage the North
directly without China's involvement.
"Beijing is content to live with a nuclear and anti-Western North Korea," he
said. "While China fears a collapsed North that would flood its struggling
Northeast with refugees, it also fears a unified, democratic, prosperous Korea
allied with the United States. China wants a puppet state in North Korea, which
is why, far from joining in sanctions, it steadily increases its economic
investment there."
Suh Jae-jean, president of the Korea Institute for National Unification, echoed
that theme when he spoke at forum here recently.
"North Koreans fear that the growing Chinese economic influence on North Korea
might eventually translate into Beijing's enhanced political influence in North
Korea," Suh said, noting the growing trade and investment that China has made in
the North for the past decade or so.
Obama has been reaching out to former U.S. foes such as Iran, Cuba and Venezuela
in what has been called "remedy diplomacy" -- an attempt to balance out the
unilateral "cowboy diplomacy" pursued by the former George W. Bush
administration.
The new U.S. president has not done that yet for North Korea, instead reiterating
calls for North Korea to come back to the six-party talks
Victor Cha, Georgetown University professor and inaugural holder of the new Korea
chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agrees that North
Korea's nuclear test aims not only at "establishing themselves as a nuclear
weapons state" but also at shifting to bilateral talks.
Cha said, however, that North Korea is not interested in bilateral talks for its
unilateral denuclearization.
"They are interested in nuclear arms control negotiations with the U.S. where two
established nuclear states negotiate mutual arms reductions, but never fully give
up their weapons."
U.S. officials and experts agree that internal instability after North Korean
leader Kim Jong-il's health failure prompted the North's nuclear test and other
provocations in recent months.
Scott Snyder, director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at the Asia
Foundation, said, "North Korea's announcement of the test shows that a primary
political target of North Korea's nuclear test is domestic."
The test is tied "directly to the leadership succession issue, underscoring an
apparent fear that external actors will take advantage of unfolding succession
arrangements to intervene or destabilize North Korea," Snyder said.
Bruce Klingner, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, agreed.
"The change in North Korean objectives may have been triggered by Kim Jong-il's
health crisis and a desire to achieve nuclear objectives prior to his death or a
formal succession," he said. "It is evident that Pyongyang is now intent on
achieving strategic technological achievements rather than gaining tactical
negotiating leverage."
Leon Panetta, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, last week discussed
"legitimate questions being raised about the internal stability of North Korea,
given Kim Jong-Il's health problems, uncertainty about succession, the weak
economy, and the persistent food shortages."
Former U.S. President Bill Clinton also said last week that, "Whenever people who
have power in a closed society have any concerns about losing it, things tend to
be degenerating to the lowest possible denominator."
Kim Jong-il is believed to have suffered a stroke and undergone surgery last
summer. The reclusive North Korean leader attended a parliamentary meeting last
month, limping on his left leg and with his left hand swollen.
Reports said Kim has selected his third and youngest son, Jong-un, 26, as his
heir apparent and appointed him as a mid-level official at the North's
all-powerful National Defense Commission, through which Kim Jong-il controls the
military as well as political and economic affairs.
The North's parliament last month appointed Chang Song-thaek, Kim's
brother-in-law, to the National Defense Commission, apparently to allow Chang to
play a caretaker role in a smooth power transition.
Against this backdrop, there is suspicion that North Korea's hardline military
has taken advantage of recent instability to derail the multilateral nuclear
talks and strengthen the communist state's military might.
According to sources, the North's former pointman on South Korean issues was
executed last year in what appeared to be the outcome of a power struggle with
regime hardliners.
Reports said the North Korean official was a scapegoat for worsening relations
with the new conservative South Korean government, led by President Lee
Myung-bak, amid complaints in Pyongyang that rapprochement under Lee's liberal
predecessors had imbued North Koreans with fantasies of capitalism.
Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said, "Pyongyang is
focused on internal domestic issues such as leadership succession and just wants
to put in place a credible deterrent to ensure they are not bothered from the
outside."
Roy forecast "a long period ahead of little or no progress toward the goals of
denuclearization and encouraging meaningful reform in North Korea," and suggested
"the military is driving North Korean policy, so future moves will be
conservative and highly suspicious of the foreign powers."
hdh@yna.co.kr
(END)

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