ID :
71881
Fri, 07/24/2009 - 10:42
Auther :

FOCUS: Regional security forum ends up highlighting 6-party talks deadlock+

PHUKET, Thailand, July 23 Kyodo -
A year ago, an Asia-Pacific regional security forum drew attention as a
promising tool for bringing together foreign ministers from the so-called
six-party-talk member countries to discuss North Korea's denuclearization.

But this year's ASEAN Regional Forum, Asia's major annual security gathering
known as the ARF, shed light on the stalemated nature of the multilateral
framework in the absence of the North Korean foreign minister.
Represented by a lower-level delegation at the one-day event in Thailand, North
Korea rebuffed calls from the United States and other Asian countries to return
to the stalled talks aimed at ending Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. North Korea
also rejected a U.S. proposal which includes ''incentives'' to be offered in
return for its denuclearization.
''The discussions didn't seem to be in the right ballpark, with North Korea
saying the current situation was brought about by the United States,'' a
Japanese official said on condition of anonymity after the gathering.
Many ARF members expressed support for the six-party framework and a good deal
of diplomacy took place among the five countries -- the six minus North Korea
-- on the sidelines of meetings related to the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations.
Yet the prospects of an early resumption of the six-party process are bleak
despite a fresh message sent by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to
Pyongyang from the Thai resort island of Phuket.
''It's not something that has been worked out in detail,'' a senior Japanese
Foreign Ministry official said in Tokyo, referring to Clinton's remarks that
Washington ''will move forward on a package of incentives and opportunities''
if North Korea agrees to ''irreversible denuclearization.''
The U.S. proposal merely resulted in the trading of barbs.
Ri Hung Sik, a senior North Korean diplomat, dismissed as ''nonsense'' such a
U.S.-proposed ''comprehensive package'' while reiterating North Korea's refusal
to return to the six-party talks. Shortly afterward, Clinton said that
Pyongyang has ''no friends left'' to protect it from moves toward its
denuclearization.
Despite their frantic efforts to arrange talks on a bilateral basis, the
ministers of the five countries did not spare time to get together and failed
to realize a South Korean proposal for five-party talks.
China has been cautious about holding talks involving only the five parties due
to concern about possibly provoking North Korea and giving it an excuse not to
return to the six-party talks, according to senior Japanese Foreign Ministry
officials.
Adding to uncertainty is the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il which
appears to be declining. Rumors have spread that he has life-threatening
pancreatic cancer and speculation about his successor is believed to be closely
linked to the country's nuclear program.
''There is uncertainty going on there politically,'' said Stephen Yates, a
former international affairs analyst at the U.S. Department of Defense. ''Under
those circumstances, I find it unlikely that some kind of negotiation or
diplomacy can make much difference.''
Nonetheless, Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone said that the series
of meetings was ''extremely significant'' in that he was able to discuss how to
respond to important issues in the region with various countries.
Another senior Foreign Ministry official has played down the impact of North
Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun's absence at the ARF, saying he believes at
least Japan's message aimed at condemning North Korea is already reaching the
country.
''I hope that North Korea's representative will properly take back our message
(sent during the ARF),'' the official said.
But even if Pak had shown up at the ARF meeting, Japan would not have been able
to make full use of the opportunity because of its own domestic political
situation, said Kan Kimura, a Kobe University professor specializing in Korean
studies.
''Given that the ARF is a rare occasion for Japan to meet North Korea's foreign
minister, it would have been a precious chance for Japan to convey its message
as long as the Japanese administration had been prepared,'' Kimura said.
''But the actual situation is that we are heading for a (House of
Representatives) election and...that in such a situation what Japan could do
was to simply make protests rather than hold negotiations,'' he added.
On the very day of Nakasone's departure to Thailand, the turbulent political
situation in Japan culminated in the dissolution of the lower house for a
general election in late August with growing speculation that the long-ruling
Liberal Democratic Party may be ousted from power.
While the dissolution does not have a direct effect on the foreign minister as
he is a House of Councillors member, Nakasone left Japan after the dissolution
led to the scrapping of a bill that would have enabled Japan to strictly
implement North Korean cargo inspections as stipulated in a new U.N. Security
Council resolution adopted in the wake of North Korea's second nuclear test.
''I'm very disappointed that our country, which has spearheaded the move to
realize the adoption of a (strong) U.N. Security Council resolution, was not
able to see the passage of the North Korean cargo inspection bill,'' Nakasone
has said. ''We were supposed to show to countries abroad through the bill's
passage that we are properly responding and urge that you all do the same.''
While Japan's own political situation may have been a distraction during a
series of ASEAN-related meeting, Kimura said Tokyo should be more active in
considering crafting a ''device'' that can draw North Korea into a multilateral
forum in the region. He also noted the important role the ARF can play in
keeping North Korean engaged.
''The ASEAN-hosted meetings have been important in that they are harmless to
some extent, and still offer occasions for various gatherings,'' Kimura said.
''But with the no-show of the North Korean foreign minister and with no
six-party talks being held at the moment, and not even knowing how long North
Korea will remain part of the United Nations, maybe Japan should work more
seriously in creating such a device,'' he added.
The ARF is the only regional security dialogue forum which is usually attended
by North Korea's foreign minister.
The six-party talks have ground to a halt since December over ways to verify
Pyongyang's nuclear activities. North Korea has continued to take provocative
acts in the past several months, including its second nuclear test, launches of
ballistic missiles and an announcement that it will quit the multilateral
talks.
==Kyodo

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