(News Focus) Clinton expected to bring journalists, perhaps breakthrough in nuclear

By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Aug. 4 (Yonhap) -- Former U.S. President Bill Clinton, on a historic trip
to North Korea, is widely expected to bring home two detained American
journalists. The other question is whether his visit will help break the ice
between the two nations locked in a protracted stand-off over Pyongyang's nuclear
and missile ambitions.
Although Clinton's primary mission is believed to be resolving the humanitarian
issue of Laura Ling and Euna Lee, it may also signal renewed engagement between
the two sides, analysts here agree.
Following a series of provocations, highlighted by a second nuclear test in May,
North Korea has openly expressed its desire for direct talks with the Obama
administration. The U.S. meanwhile has adopted a "two-track" approach towards
Pyongyang, seeking dialogue but also fully enforcing U.N. sanctions on the
nuclear-armed communist nation.
Attending the ASEAN Regional Forum last month, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton said that her government will offer a "comprehensive package" of
incentives for North Korea, including the normalization of diplomatic ties, if
the North takes irreversible steps towards denuclearization.
Analysts noted the choice of the secretary's husband, whose administration had
vigorously sought to improve ties with the North.
"Chances are very high that North Korea will hand the female reporters to
Clinton," Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korean studies professor at Korea University said.
He said Clinton would have not ventured into North Korea without assurances that
he will be able to bring them out of Pyongyang.
An informed diplomatic source in Seoul agreed, saying North Korea and the U.S.
have already completed related negotiations through the North's diplomatic
mission to the United Nations.
Clinton is expected to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il before heading back
to the U.S. as early as Wednesday, the source added. "I don't think he will stay
there for a long time," the source said.
North Korea watchers say Clinton's trip will have political implications,
regardless of whether the U.S. government wants it or not.
The U.S. reportedly planned to send former Vice President Al Gore, who used to
own the Internet broadcaster that the two detained reporters work for, as a
special envoy in a bid to clearly separate the journalists' detention from the
nuclear issue.
But the North rejected the offer, apparently in hope that Washington would send a
top-level government official authorized to discuss political issues. Clinton was
apparently a compromise choice, saving face for both sides.
"Clinton's visit to North Korea may give the green light for the U.S. to shift
from pressure on North Korea to a dialogue phase," Yang Moo-jin, a professor at
the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul said.
He recalled a 1994 trip to Pyongyang by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, which
diffused tensions over North Korea's nuclear program and eventually led to a
landmark agreement in Geneva between the two sides.
Under the now-defunct Agreed Framework, the North suspended the operation of its
key nuclear power plant in return for a promise to receive light-water reactors.
Some experts caution against excessive optimism beyond the change of mood.
"We have to wait and see whether the North Korea-U.S. relations will improve in
the end," Koh Yu-hwan, professor at Dongguk University said.
The Clinton administration chose to engage in direct negotiations with the North
during the first nuclear crisis in the 1990s, but the current Obama
administration stands firm on its support for the six-way talks, Koh pointed out.
North Korea has abandoned the multilateral forum, also attended by South Korea,
China, Russia and Japan, to protest U.N. sanctions.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)