FOCUS: N. Korean overtures stir both hope, wariness in Japan

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BEIJING, Oct. 11 Kyodo -
Signs that North Korea may return to the stalled six-party denuclearization
talks and may have intentions to improve its relations with Tokyo have evoked
both hope and wariness in Japan.
The signs emerged as Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao shared the contents of his Oct.
5 talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang with the leaders of
Japan and South Korea on Saturday in Beijing during the annual trilateral
summit.
Wen quoted Kim as saying that he hopes to hold multilateral talks, including
the six-party talks, depending on developments in bilateral talks with the
United States which the North has vigorously sought.
Kim also said he intends to improve not just North Korea's relations with
Washington but also those with Tokyo and Seoul, with which Pyongyang has had
troubles.
Upon receiving Wen's briefing, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama expressed
hope about the North's overtures. ''I want to trust those (Kim's) words,'' he
said at the meeting.
Hatoyama added that Japan is ready to react in kind if North Korea takes
concrete steps toward resolving outstanding issues between the two countries,
including the North's abductions of Japanese nationals, a major sticking point
in Tokyo's dealings with Pyongyang.
Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yorihisa Matsuno, who accompanied Hatoyama to
China for the summit, attributed the signs of change in Pyongyang's stance
partly to Hatoyama's inauguration as prime minister in mid-September.
''My feeling is that something may get going a little with a change of
government (in Japan),'' Matsuno, a lawmaker of Hatoyama's Democratic Party of
Japan, said without elaborating at a press briefing in Beijing.
Some experts say they also see hope in the recent developments, given that
North Korea had declared its withdrawal from the six-party talks in April,
vowing not to return to the multilateral framework aimed at ending its nuclear
programs.
''This is big progress,'' said Liu Jiangyong, an expert in East Asian affairs
who is a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua
University in Beijing. ''Kim's declaration has made it clear that North Korea
will continue to deal with Japan as a negotiating partner and hold dialogue
with it.''
But other observers are wary about North Korea's intentions, noting that the
North has said it would return to the six-party talks, which have been stalled
since December, with the qualification that doing so would depend on the
negotiations with the United States.
North Korea has expressed a strong desire to directly engage Washington, which
has said it will have a direct dialogue with Pyongyang if it is part of the
six-party talks and would lead to their resumption.
Masao Okonogi, a Korea expert at Keio University, warned that by showing a
positive attitude toward multilateral talks, ''including'' the six-way ones,
North Korea has also indicated it may want to explore dialogue frameworks other
than the six-party talks, which involve the two Koreas, China, the United
States, Japan and Russia.
''North Korea's position is that it cannot completely abandon its nuclear
capabilities unless a peace accord is negotiated between the four parties,''
Okonogi said, referring to a possible negotiation involving the two Koreas,
China and the United States to forge a pact on formally ending the 1950-1953
Korean War.
''There is a possibility that as a result, four- and six-party talks would get
moving in parallel after a U.S.-North Korean dialogue, or that the three
processes would get moving (at the same time).''
Japan is unlikely to have a place in a process that deals exclusively with
security on the peninsula because it was not party to the war. But that does
not mean that the six-nation framework would be unnecessary, according to
Okonogi.
''Any denuclearization accord (reached by any multilateral frameworks) would
require an endorsement in the six-party talks because otherwise Japan would not
want to do anything,'' the Keio professor said, adding that the North would not
mind being involved in the talks as long as they serve to underwrite any
agreement negotiated elsewhere.
Despite North Korea's signs that it may return to the six-party process, the
abduction issue -- the perennial concern for Tokyo -- is likely to have
difficulties making much headway, experts say.
''North Korea may be returning to the six-party talks just to be able to
negotiate with the United States,'' said Shunji Hiraiwa, a professor at the
University of Shizuoka who is an expert on Northeast Asian affairs. ''If that
is the case, you can't hope much that this would lead to an essential
resolution of the abduction issue.''
Japan has sought a comprehensive solution to the issue within the six-party
framework by linking it with North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile
issues, while China, the chair of the talks, has put priority on denuclearizing
the peninsula.
Given that Japan depends on the framework to see the abduction issue solved,
experts say there will be a time when Japan must face difficult choices.
''Japan is in a situation where it cannot solve the (abduction) issue
single-handedly given the complex process on the North Korean matter,'' Hiraiwa
said. ''Because the international community does not necessarily share Japan's
interest and position, it will be forced to make a tough choice if the nuclear
issue begins to move forward in the future.''
Noting that Japan has two goals -- North Korea's denuclearization and the
resolution of the abduction issue -- Keio University's Okonogi offers a
two-pronged approach to the sanctions Japan has slapped on the North.
''If an accord is forged on North Korea's denuclearization, Japan should lift
U.N. Security Council sanctions on the North together with other countries and
offer energy aid to it if necessary,'' Okonogi said.
If the abduction issue heads toward resolution, then the sanctions Tokyo has
applied on its own can be lifted, said the professor. ''Japan should not chase
two rabbits at the same time, but rather needs a mechanism in which if it
catches one, then it will be able to catch the other.''
And Japan will have to begin explaining this logic to its people at some point,
he added.
==Kyodo