(Yearender) N. Korea accelerates diplomacy, succession in 2009

By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Dec. 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korea adhered to bold nuclear diplomacy and
stepped up preparations for another father-to-son power transfer this year as it
sought to transform itself into a "strong and prosperous country" by 2012, North
Korea experts here said.
The most brash manifestations of the state's brinkmanship were its long-range
rocket launch and second nuclear test in spring and subsequent demands for direct
talks with the U.S., which finally took place this month.
"It was a turbulent and crucial year for the security of the Korean Peninsula,"
said Paik Hak-soon, senior researcher at Sejong Institute, a private think tank.
The communist regime hoped to stabilize internal politics and collect bargaining
chips for talks with the U.S., Paik said. All of this was to be done in line with
its goal for 2012, the birth centennial of Kim Il-sung, the country's late
founder and father of current leader Kim Jong-il, he added.
The year dawned with high hopes for progress in international efforts to
dismantle the North's nuclear program and end its decades of isolation. Hardline
U.S. President George W. Bush retired in January and Barack Obama took office
with a pledge to reach out to America's adversaries.
In early March, Obama's top envoy on North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, attempted to
visit Pyongyang to hold dialogue but the offer went unanswered; the North was
apparently preoccupied with gearing up for the long-range rocket launch. The same
month it took hostage two U.S. journalists along the border with China and a
South Korean man working at an inter-Korean industrial park.
North Korea fired the rocket, in what many believed was an intercontinental
ballistic missile test, on April 5, when Obama delivered a tone-setting speech
in Prague promising to "seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear
weapons."
The U.N. Security Council condemned North Korea for the launch, but its regime
was unfazed. Pyongyang went on to conduct its second known nuclear experiment in
May, prompting the council to adopt another sanctions resolution against the
cash-strapped country.
In protest, Pyongyang quit six-nation nuclear talks and announced a plan to
bolster its nuclear arsenal by pursuing both plutonium reprocessing and uranium
enrichment.
Officials and analysts said the North's provocations appeared associated partly
with its internal situation, following reports that Kim Jong-il was ailing and
seeking to transfer power to his third son, Jong-un.
Paik says these factors contributed to the North sensing a need "to promote unity
and loyalty among the people and at the same time improve external
circumstances."
Looking back, South Korean officials say the North made a strategic mistake in
the first half of this year and lost a golden opportunity for early direct
negotiations with the Obama administration.
"If North Korea had not made such provocations, it could have held direct talks
with the U.S. at that time to negotiate various incentives," a Seoul foreign
ministry official said, requesting anonymity. "The return of the Democrats (to
the U.S. Congress), who have nostalgia for bilateral negotiations with the North,
appeared to be a good opportunity for (the North)."
In summer, North Korea made a diplomatic about-face towards Seoul and Washington,
but not before feeling some of the consequences of its provocations.
"Strong U.N. sanctions are hurting North Korea," Donald Gregg, former U.S.
ambassador to South Korea and current head of the Korea Society in New York said.
"The Obama administration now thinks very highly of South Korea as its key Asian
ally, and President Obama and President Lee Myung-bak have developed a very solid
relationship."
Gregg and Paik agree the turning point came when former U.S. President Bill
Clinton made a surprise visit to Pyongyang in early August to win the release of
the two American journalists. Clinton brought them back home and the North also
set free the South Korean worker.
In an explicit conciliatory gesture toward Seoul, a high-profile North Korean
delegation including leader Kim Jong-il's top aides, paid a courtesy call on
President Lee during its visit here to attend the funeral of ex-South Korean
President Kim Dae-jung the same month.
The North then focused its efforts on arranging one-on-one talks with the U.S.
After months of internal debate and consultations with allies, Washington
eventually dispatched Stephen Bosworth, special representative for North Korean
policy, to Pyongyang in early December.
Bosworth sat down with Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju, said to be the
architect of the North's nuclear diplomacy, yielding a "common understanding" on
the need to resume the six-party talks. The two sides failed to agree on when to
reconvene the negotiations, however. Additional meetings to discuss details are
expected in the coming weeks or months.
Gregg said the North is unlikely to make a similar mistake and it will instead
try to seize its chance this time.
"I believe that North Korea realizes that it overreacted by its actions earlier
this year," he said. "So, as North Korea and the Obama administration begin a
dialogue, I think there is a real opportunity for progress to be made, fully
supported by actions taken by President Lee Myung-bak."
In late November, meanwhile, North Korea revalued its currency, knocking two
zeros off the nominal value of its bank notes, in what observers regarded as an
attempt to fight inflation and clamp down on the sprouting free market.
lcd@yna.co.kr
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