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97395
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:20
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Year-ender: POVERTY RATE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN 2010 By Andi Abdussalam



Jakarta, Dec 30 (ANTARA) - While the government expressed optimism that the poverty rate in Indonesia would continue to be reduced, a researcher said however that the poverty rate may even increase in 2010.

"From 2000 to 2009 the poverty rate has been under 20 percent and in 2009 alone it was slightly above ten percent," Vice President Boediono said recently. The figure could continue to be reduced because Indonesia had the potential to overcome the poverty problem with its good structure of economic development and the government programs for people's welfare.

"I am certain that we will be able to lower the poverty rate percentage from 14.1 percent this year to 8-10 percent in 2014 if we wisely make use of our existing potentials," Boediono said.

However, economic researcher Agus Eko Nugroho of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said that Indonesia is likely to see an increase in the poverty rate in 2010.

"We estimate economic growth in 2010 could reach 5.9 percent but the number of poor people is probably to rise to 32.7 million from 32.5 million in 2009," the LIPI researcher said on Tuesday.

Social Affairs Minister Salim Segar Al-Jufri said meanwhile at present the number of poor families in Indonesia reached 76 million while the number of people who were under the poverty line reached 20 million.

"The poverty rate this year is about 14 percent and it could be reduced to about 10 to 8 percent in 2014," the minister said.

According to Agus Eko Nugroho, the national economy could grow at a rate higher than the 5.5 percent projected in the 2010 State Budget because of an impetus from global economic performance, especially from economic resurgence in the Asian region.

But the number of poor people is likely to increase slightly to 32.7 million in 2010 from 32.5 million in 2009, though investment is expected to grow on the need for Rp1,700 trillion in domestic investment, Rp979.363 trillion in non-facility and money market investment.

Foreign investment is expected to reach Rp225,200 trillion, funds held by the banking industry Rp345.911 trillion, and government expenditures Rp179.079 trillion. But the relatively rapid economic growth would also be accompanied by a rise in the inflation rate to 5.6 percent.

"Increased inflation will prevent the improved economic growth from resulting in a rise in the welfare level of the poor," Agus said. Meanwhile, the government's poverty eradication effort through the scheme known as National Self-Reliant Community Empowerment Program (PNPM) would not directly result in an improvement of poor people's conditions.

"The program is more oriented to the establishment of physical structures whose benefit cannot be directly enjoyed by the poor," Agus said.

However, the poverty rate has shown a downward trend. Vice President Boediono said that the poverty rate in Indonesia has since 1990 continued to drop dramatically from 60 percent to 14.1 percent in 2009.

"It is our historic record because the number of poor people continues to decline rapidly since 1990, although it edged up slightly in 1998 as a result of the national economic crisis," the vice president said.

The vice president said the poverty rate in 2000 to 2009 was recorded at below 20 percent or slightly above 10 percent. Therefore the vice president called on regional governments as field coordinators to pay serious attention to the people's welfare so as to reduce the poverty rate significantly.

In an effort to cut further the poverty rate, Boediono said the government is to form a special body to overcome poverty which will operate under his leadership. "So to implement efforts to overcome poverty there will be a special body to be named National Committee for Poverty Alleviation and I will be its chair," he said at a press conference last month.

Boediono said there would be several changes with regard to poverty alleviation efforts. As an example he said the direct cash subsidy program carried out so far would be improved. "It would not be in the form of cash handout but would be given upon certain conditions," he said.

Assistance would later be given based upon needs. So if a poor family needs assistance for children's schooling the government would give an education aid while it would give hospital or medical cost assistance if a family needs health assistance.

The role of sub-district-based health-care centers (Puskesmas) would be boosted to cover not only treating the sick but also conducting preventive guidance.

"The key is a clear target in terms of needs and target persons," he said.

So, in order to know the targets valid and complete data would be needed and therefore the Central Bureau of Statistics is currently making an inventory of the poor families. The data would be detailed to cover families.

"There will be a nationwide data base covering sub-districts, villages, neighborhoods and families," the vice president said.

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