(News Focus) Speculation on inter-Korean summit gathers steam

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, Jan. 4 (Yonhap) -- President Lee Myung-bak's New Year proposal for a
standing dialogue channel with North Korea, just days after the communist North
signaled a shift to diplomatic and economic stability, has rekindled speculation
about an imminent inter-Korean summit, possibly this year.
North Korea watchers and government officials in Seoul share the view that the
environment has been ripe for a summit meeting between President Lee and North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il, but they still warned against any early optimism.
"The first several months of this year is an opportune time" for a third
inter-Korean summit, said Paik Hak-soon, chief North Korea specialist at the
Sejong Institute, a think tank south of Seoul.
The divided Koreas, technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a
truce, have held two summit meetings in the past decade.
The first one in 2000, between North Korea's Kim and then South Korean President
Kim Dae-jung, coincided with a thaw in relations between North Korea and the
United States, which eased economic sanctions on the communist state as it held a
series of negotiations over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile development programs.
In Friday's New Year's message scrutinized for insights into Pyongyang's goals
for the coming year, North Korea called for an end to enmity with the U.S. The
sides confronted each other last year on Pyongyang's rocket launch and second
nuclear test.
The message that was carried in a joint newspaper editorial came after a U.S.
special envoy flew into Pyongyang last month carrying President Barack Obama's
letter for the 68-year-old North Korean leader.
The softening of Pyongyang's tone raised optimism here that North Korea will
launch a series of diplomatic forays this year to improve relations with U.S.
allies -- South Korea and Japan.
"These fence-mending jobs go side-by-side," said Kang Sung-yoon, a North Korea
professor at Seoul's Dongguk University. He was referring to a pattern in which
North Korea pushes to improve relations with its regional neighbors in an effort
to preempt their balking at a unilateral thaw between Pyongyang and Washington.
Apparently taking a cue from the North Korean message of rapprochement, South
Korean President Lee vowed Monday to open "a new chapter" in relations between
the sides, which dipped to one of their lowest points in history after the
conservative president took office in February 2008.
"I expect North Korea to open its heart with sincerity and walk on the path of
dialogue and cooperation," Lee said in his New Year's address. "First of all, an
organization for standing dialogue between South and North Korea should be
established," said Lee, who has said he is willing to meet Kim anytime and
anywhere if it can help push forward the denuclearization of the North.
Lee's call for a joint body dedicated to standing dialogue also came after a
pro-North Korean newspaper in Japan said on Jan. 1 that it envisions a "dramatic
event" in cross-border relations this year, raising hope for a summit between the
Koreas.
"A summit in the early half of this year benefits both sides," Paik, the Sejong
Institute scholar, said, arguing the South Korean ruling party would enjoy a
boost ahead of local elections in June if Lee showcases a rare meeting with Kim.
The North Korean leader could then pressure the Obama administration to step up
its engagement with Pyongyang in the run-up to a global nuclear summit in March
and a Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference in May.
"Gains in dealing with North Korea could help boost the Obama administration's
diplomacy hamstrung by the Iranian nuclear issue," Paik said.
In the New Year's message, North Korea reaffirmed its commitment to a Korean
Peninsula stripped of nuclear arms through talks, a mantra that emerged in the
2007 summit between the Koreas.
"Conditions for a summit are better than we've seen in recent years," a South
Korean Unification Ministry official said, declining to be named. "But there is
no fixed timetable for something like this, and close consultation among allies
is a priority."
Analysts say the need for North Korea to revive foreign assistance and use it in
its campaign to achieve "a strong and prosperous nation" in 2012 will further
escalate the pressure on Pyongyang to open.
"Stability on the diplomatic front helps Kim to concentrate his energy on the
economic front," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean
Studies in Seoul.
Contrasting with his visit to a military unit as his first public activity in
2009, Kim went to a power-generating plant in his first field guidance this year,
according to official media.
The report came after the North Korean media showed some 100,000 people rallying
in Pyongyang, pledging their roles in a nationwide campaign to increase
industrial production and raise the standard of living.
"Focus on the economy has never been so clear in recent years in North Korea,"
Paik said, also citing the first currency redenomination the North has enforced
in 17 years as it apparently seeks to crack down on market activities outside
state purview and tame inflation.
The economic campaign focuses on subsistence-level industries that can help boost
the value of the new currency. Some South Korean officials, including the defense
minister, have voiced concern that the revaluation of the currency could lead to
instability in the communist state and a national security threat to South Korea.
samkim@yna.co.kr
(END)