Thailand's Economy To Grow By 4 Pct, Recovery Remains Vulnerable

BANGKOK, Jan 21 (Bernama) -- Thailand’s economy is estimated to shrink 6.5 per cent in 2020 from the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is projected to rebound to 4 per cent in 2021, according to World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor report. The latest edition of the World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor, “Restoring Incomes; Recovering Jobs,” said COVID-19 has severely affected the Thai economy, which was already weakening even prior to the global outbreak. While signs of improvement have emerged in the most recent data, the latest outbreak of COVID-19 cases since mid-December could constrain domestic demand in the near-term, it said. “This year, the economy is expected to recover gradually, despite the recent second outbreak of COVID-19, and growth is forecast to pick up further to 4.7 per cent in 2022. “However, the recovery remains vulnerable to downside risks, including from an extended resurgence of the pandemic resulting in a prolonged stagnation in tourism and domestic activity, a weaker-than-expected global recovery that could lead to continuing trade and supply chain disruptions, and high household debt levels,” it said. The report stressed that sustained recovery in employment was essential to help the country bounce back in 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, the report said COVID-19 had a significant impact on Thailand’s labour market, with a particularly large increase in unemployment among young people. “Hours worked fell, as did monthly incomes. Hours worked have not fully recovered, and employment in several sectors including manufacturing remains smaller than a year ago. This means the labour market is in a vulnerable position to confront any future shocks including a resurgence of COVID-19,” it said. Its projection indicates that an additional 1.5 million people may have entered poverty in 2020 due to the economic impact of COVID-19, based on a poverty line of US$5.50 (2011 PPP) per day. It said the Thai government has made good progress in implementing a substantial package of measures to support households and firms. To date, Thailand has recorded 12,653 cases and 71 fatalities. -- BERNAMA