Thailand's Exports Recovery To Remain Robust In 2Q21

By Linda Khoo Hu LI BANGKOK, May 27 (Bernama) -- Thailand’s export recovery is likely to continue in the second quarter of 2021 (2Q21), supported by higher oil prices and the sustained demand in the electronics and automotive sectors, according to RHB Research. The research house said strong exports growth is also driven by a low-base effect since 2020, especially in May and June this year as exports contracted 22.5 per cent and 23.1 per cent, respectively, during the same period last year with lockdowns in force globally to contain COVID-19. “As global restrictions have eased and most countries entered into a period of normalisation, we expect exports growth on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis to rise further in the next two months,” it said in a research note. Thailand’s export in April rose 13.09 per cent to US$21.43 billion (US$1 = RM4.14), the fastest pace in three years, driven by higher global demand while import increased 29.79 per cent to US$21.25 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US$182.48 million. The stronger-than-estimated growth was led by the recovery in the shipments of the electronics and automotive sectors, while agriculture exports were sustained by rubber and tapioca products. Imports were led by oil-related products, raw materials and capital goods. The research house said higher oil prices would support refinery exports. Brent crude oil is currently trading at US$68.79 per barrel, about 132.3 per cent higher than its average in 2Q20. RHB Research said May prices has so far been trading relatively higher, which will support the refinery exports. “Our average 2021 forecast for the crude oil is at US$ 60 per barrel, taking into account the sustained level in the 1H21 before a moderation in the 2H21,” it said. The research arm said the demand in the electronics and automotive sectors will remain strong following robust demand for stay-at-home tools such as personal computers, smartphones, tablets, and gaming consoles. It said the strong vehicle sales in China and the United States are expected to continue for the next two months. “The shortage of semiconductors might disrupt the growth in the electric & electronics sector, as well as the automotive sector in the near-term but the impact is unlikely to be too severe for the recovery of exports,” it said. -- BERNAMA