More voters favor opposition candidates in upper house race survey
TOKYO, July 6 Kyodo - Opposition-backed candidates are leading over their ruling bloc rivals in Japan's House of Councillors election, while a minor conservative party is gaining popularity as households struggle with cost-push inflation outpacing wage growth, a Kyodo News survey showed Sunday.
The poll, conducted over two days from Saturday, found that 36.6 percent of respondents supported opposition contenders, compared with 20.5 percent for the ruling camp, with frustration over Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's failure to boost consumer confidence apparently mounting.
The approval rating for Ishiba's Cabinet fell to 25.4 percent, down 7.0 points from the previous survey, underscoring the possibility that his ruling coalition may not be able to retain a majority in the 248-seat upper house after the July 20 election.
Ishiba has defined victory as the ruling LDP and its junior coalition partner, the Komeito party, maintaining a majority in the upper house, as they have already lost control of the more powerful House of Representatives after last year's general election.
In the nationwide telephone survey, 18.2 percent of respondents said they will vote for Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party under proportional representation, almost unchanged from the poll carried out over two days from June 28.
Support for the minor opposition group, the Sanseito party, which has drawn traction among conservative voters with nationalist and anti-establishment views under its "Japanese First" banner, rose 2.3 points to 8.1 percent.
The figure exceeded support for the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, down from 9.8 percent to 6.6 percent, and the Democratic Party for the People, whose political base has expanded recently, rising from 6.4 percent to 6.8 percent.
Sanseito, launched in 2020, has three seats in the lower house, with its leader, Sohei Kamiya, claiming that globalization is the "reason behind Japan's poverty," as foreign capital is buying up land and company stocks.
Official campaigning for the upcoming upper house race began Thursday, with parties competing for votes with divergent positions on tax cuts as a way to ease inflation. Opposition groups are calling for a consumption tax reduction, while Ishiba has pledged to instead provide cash handouts.
In the latest survey, 76.7 percent said they prefer a consumption tax cut, up 6.7 points, and 17.9 percent chose cash handouts, down 5.9 points, as Japan's fiscal health remains the worst among major economies.
Of the 125 seats being contested, 74 will be decided in electoral districts, and 50 through proportional representation. One additional seat will be filled to address a vacancy in the other half of the chamber.
The survey showed 31.2 percent favored a governing arrangement combining the LDP, Komeito, and selected opposition forces after the election. Another 29.8 percent expressed interest in a restructured lineup emerging from a broader political reorganization.
Support for an opposition-led government stood at 17.6 percent, while 15.0 percent opted for the current alliance between ruling parties. The numbers point to discontent with the present dynamics, yet little appetite for a complete change in political leadership.
When asked what factor most guides their choice, 31.2 percent cited price-related policies, 18.0 percent mentioned public welfare, 11.5 percent emphasized child support and demographic decline, and 9.4 percent preferred economic growth and labor issues.
While 35.6 percent said information from online platforms shapes how they vote, 62.3 percent dismissed it as irrelevant. As for the LDP's political funds scandal, 57.1 percent regarded it as significant, but 40.6 percent gave it little weight.
Ishiba's conservative LDP has faced intense scrutiny over revelations that some of its groups, including one headed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, neglected to report portions of income from fundraising events and created slush funds.
During the upper house election campaign, policies concerning foreigners have also received attention, not only in relation to labor shortages but also in connection with property ownership, national security and how investment from abroad affects Japan.
Regarding whether foreign nationals should be disallowed from purchasing real estate in central Tokyo, Ishiba said on a TV program Sunday that properties "should not be held for speculative purposes," vowing to swiftly examine the situation.
The survey called 603 randomly selected households with eligible voters and 4,022 mobile phone numbers. It yielded responses from 509 household members and 744 mobile phone users.
==Kyodo
