(EDITORIAL from the Korea Herald on Jan. 19) - N.K. Message

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula heightened Saturday after North Korea's military threatened a "posture of all-out confrontation" against South Korea.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff issued a border alert and increased reconnaissance flights
in response to the threat.
More harshly worded than its usual denunciations of the South, the statement was
read on North Korean state television by a spokesperson wearing a military
uniform. It was the first time in 10 years that a message has been issued by the
North Korean army's General Staff.
The statement specifically warned that it would not allow intrusions by South
Korean vessels into North Korean waters. The military would preserve the sea
border claimed by the North in the Yellow Sea, the spokesman said.
Six South Korean navy men were killed in a naval clash in the disputed area in
2002. In 1999, dozens of North Korea sailors were killed in a similar clash.
Although the Northern Limit Line, a sea border on the West Sea drawn up by the
U.S.-led U.N. forces after the Korean War, serves as a de facto border between
the two countries, North Korea does not recognize the NLL. The communist state
wants a new maritime border further south of the current NLL.
A few hours before the statement by the military, the North Korean foreign
ministry said that Pyongyang may not surrender its nuclear weapons even if
diplomatic ties with Washington were established. The message said that Pyongyang
would terminate its nuclear program only if there was no possibility of the
United States launching a nuclear attack against the North.
The two statements are yet more examples of North Korean brinksmanship. Whereas
Pyongyang was expected to refrain from provoking the United States ahead of the
President Barack Obama's inauguration on Jan. 20 as a way to start off on smooth
terms with the new administration, it did just the opposite.
The statement was a message directed toward Obama, not South Korea, according to
analysts. During his presidential campaign, Obama said that he would be willing
to talk directly with North Koreans to end the nuclear dispute.
The North Korean reasoning behind its fresh threats may be that raising military
tension with South Korea would cause the United States to push ahead with the
stalled six party talks that aim to provide North Korea with economic assistance
in exchange for nuclear disarmament. Pyongyang is probably concerned that the
denuclearization deal may receive less attention by the new Washington
administration, which faces growing economic crisis at home and is apparently
preoccupied with the Iranian nuclear issue.
Launching at actual attack against South Korea would not serve Pyongyang's
purposes. Hence, military clashes are unlikely. While there is no cause for
panic, the government should be on a full alert against any provocation by the
North.
The escalation of military tension on the Korean Peninsula is yet another
challenge to the Lee Myung-bak administration which is saddled with an economic
crisis and a political impasse.
North Korea has once against chosen to exercise brinksmanship in order to draw
attention. It may indeed get that attention, but there is no guarantee that it
will be able to secure its intended goals.
(END)