ID :
41476
Mon, 01/19/2009 - 14:08
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://www.oananews.org//node/41476
The shortlink copeid
(News Focus) Pyongyang's bellicose rhetoric may suggest internal jitters: analysts
SEOUL, Jan. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's latest military threats are widely viewed as brinkmanship aimed at the incoming U.S. administration, but they also coincide with growing speculation of a power transfer in Pyongyang and heightened internal propaganda by the regime.
With leader Kim Jong-il reportedly in feeble health and the country suffering
growing economic woes, analysts view Pyongyang as trying to settle internal
jitters and tighten regime control by taking a confrontational mode against
Seoul.
The saber-rattling by the North's general chief of staff to take an "all-out
confrontational posture" against South Korea on Saturday has been broadcast
repeatedly by state-run media. Follow-up reports boasted of the international
media attention to the North's statement and how North Korean citizens are
supportive of it, signs that Pyongyang is intensifying its internal propaganda
campaign.
"When a similar statement was issued 10 years ago, it was viewed as an intention
to promote citizens' unity and boost military morale," Kim Ho-nyoun, Seoul's
Unification Ministry spokesman, told reporters on Monday, referring to a 1998
military offensive. "We can infer about the present from the past."
Various sources say leader Kim Jong-il may have recently begun seriously thinking
about naming his successor as his health remains feeble after reportedly
suffering a stroke in August.
"The fact that he was quite ill a few months ago is leading to the question of
who's going to succeed him," Christopher Hill, the outgoing chief U.S. nuclear
envoy, said in a recent media interview. "It's very clear that North Korea is
beginning to think about succession."
Multiple intelligence sources also told Yonhap that Kim named his third and
youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor around Jan. 8 and that the North has
started preparations for the hereditary succession. The elder Lee turns 67 next
month.
Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, an
independent think tank in Seoul, said he sees a sign of an imminent power shift
in North Korea. The North's military similarly flexed its muscles to consolidate
the regime when the current leader was designated by his father, Kim Il-sung, as
his successor in 1974, he noted.
"Without evidence we cannot say for sure, but since Chairman Kim Jong-il became
sick, there have been continuing movements in North Korea to strengthen its
leadership," he said. "Such signs appeared before and after the current leader
was nominated. By escalating tension with South Korea, it might be trying to
consolidate solidarity within inner circles ahead of a power succession."
Analysts also link the heightened propaganda to growing economic concerns in
North Korea. In its New Year joint editorial, Pyongyang pledged to "solve food
problems by our own efforts" and rebuild the nation's decrepit industrial
infrastructure, but prospects for such goals appear dim.
Chinese demand for minerals, a major North Korean export, has nosedived and aid
from South Korea remains suspended, driving North Korea's economy toward negative
growth this year, analysts say.
North Korea's gross domestic product, valued 20.7 trillion won (US$15.2 billion)
in 2007, was even lower than its 1990 output, 24.1 trillion won. North Korea's
economy is just 2.8 percent of South Korea's in terms of gross national income.
In a political campaign to mobilize citizens, Pyongyang restored a postwar
industrial campaign this year with a pledge to make a "powerful, prosperous
nation" by 2012.
Some, however, caution against simplifying North Korea's offensive as internal
rhetoric. A power transfer in the communist state is a highly contained issue,
and with its latest threats, North Korea is literally warning South Korea that it
may initiate a military clash should Seoul continue its hardline stance, said
Paik Hak-soon, another senior researcher with the Sejong Institute.
"To link the succession issue to the latest warning to South Korea is a very
simplified interpretation of North Korea," Paik said. "The leader's health and
power issue in the North are highly internal and independent of the external
environment. North Korea is actually staging a political and military offensive
against South Korea. Seoul needs to seriously consider the warning and not just
wait but change its policy."
North Korea also said on Saturday it would hold onto its nuclear arms until after
Washington withdrew its nuclear threat from the peninsula.
Analysts said the North is attempting to draw attention from the incoming U.S.
government of President-elect Barack Obama, which is expected to prioritize the
troubled U.S. economy and campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq over the North Korean
nuclear issue.
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
With leader Kim Jong-il reportedly in feeble health and the country suffering
growing economic woes, analysts view Pyongyang as trying to settle internal
jitters and tighten regime control by taking a confrontational mode against
Seoul.
The saber-rattling by the North's general chief of staff to take an "all-out
confrontational posture" against South Korea on Saturday has been broadcast
repeatedly by state-run media. Follow-up reports boasted of the international
media attention to the North's statement and how North Korean citizens are
supportive of it, signs that Pyongyang is intensifying its internal propaganda
campaign.
"When a similar statement was issued 10 years ago, it was viewed as an intention
to promote citizens' unity and boost military morale," Kim Ho-nyoun, Seoul's
Unification Ministry spokesman, told reporters on Monday, referring to a 1998
military offensive. "We can infer about the present from the past."
Various sources say leader Kim Jong-il may have recently begun seriously thinking
about naming his successor as his health remains feeble after reportedly
suffering a stroke in August.
"The fact that he was quite ill a few months ago is leading to the question of
who's going to succeed him," Christopher Hill, the outgoing chief U.S. nuclear
envoy, said in a recent media interview. "It's very clear that North Korea is
beginning to think about succession."
Multiple intelligence sources also told Yonhap that Kim named his third and
youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor around Jan. 8 and that the North has
started preparations for the hereditary succession. The elder Lee turns 67 next
month.
Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, an
independent think tank in Seoul, said he sees a sign of an imminent power shift
in North Korea. The North's military similarly flexed its muscles to consolidate
the regime when the current leader was designated by his father, Kim Il-sung, as
his successor in 1974, he noted.
"Without evidence we cannot say for sure, but since Chairman Kim Jong-il became
sick, there have been continuing movements in North Korea to strengthen its
leadership," he said. "Such signs appeared before and after the current leader
was nominated. By escalating tension with South Korea, it might be trying to
consolidate solidarity within inner circles ahead of a power succession."
Analysts also link the heightened propaganda to growing economic concerns in
North Korea. In its New Year joint editorial, Pyongyang pledged to "solve food
problems by our own efforts" and rebuild the nation's decrepit industrial
infrastructure, but prospects for such goals appear dim.
Chinese demand for minerals, a major North Korean export, has nosedived and aid
from South Korea remains suspended, driving North Korea's economy toward negative
growth this year, analysts say.
North Korea's gross domestic product, valued 20.7 trillion won (US$15.2 billion)
in 2007, was even lower than its 1990 output, 24.1 trillion won. North Korea's
economy is just 2.8 percent of South Korea's in terms of gross national income.
In a political campaign to mobilize citizens, Pyongyang restored a postwar
industrial campaign this year with a pledge to make a "powerful, prosperous
nation" by 2012.
Some, however, caution against simplifying North Korea's offensive as internal
rhetoric. A power transfer in the communist state is a highly contained issue,
and with its latest threats, North Korea is literally warning South Korea that it
may initiate a military clash should Seoul continue its hardline stance, said
Paik Hak-soon, another senior researcher with the Sejong Institute.
"To link the succession issue to the latest warning to South Korea is a very
simplified interpretation of North Korea," Paik said. "The leader's health and
power issue in the North are highly internal and independent of the external
environment. North Korea is actually staging a political and military offensive
against South Korea. Seoul needs to seriously consider the warning and not just
wait but change its policy."
North Korea also said on Saturday it would hold onto its nuclear arms until after
Washington withdrew its nuclear threat from the peninsula.
Analysts said the North is attempting to draw attention from the incoming U.S.
government of President-elect Barack Obama, which is expected to prioritize the
troubled U.S. economy and campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq over the North Korean
nuclear issue.
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
