ID :
43166
Thu, 01/29/2009 - 18:29
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://www.oananews.org//node/43166
The shortlink copeid
North Korea Should Abstain from Denouncing President Lee Myung-bak
Inter-Korean relations, brittle throughout 2008, are anticipated to remain uneasy in 2009 also. While some analysts view this as a mere continuation of long-running tension in relations and pessimistically believe the worst is yet to come, others, concerned at what they see as an aberration from an overall trend towards reconciliation, maintain hope that relations can be normalized.
Yet irrespective of such debates, the bigger problem is the view that the
initiative for breakthrough of the blockage in South-North Korean relation should
be found externally rather between the two countries themselves. Both South and
North Korea have adopted the position that only external change, namely the
inauguration of Obama and subsequent change of U.S. administration can prompt
progress in inter-Korean relations.
Needless to say, South-North relations can be positively affected by external
forces, namely an advance in North-U.S. relations and resolution of the North
Korean nuclear issue. If such an environment is constructed we must take
advantage of this advance. However, the South and North must still try to solve
problems for themselves instead of passively waiting for an external change,
because South and North suffer a greater disadvantage due to the long-term
blockage of South-North relation than anyone else.
Indeed, the suspension of South-North relations is a burden to South Korea's
government. Notwithstanding the official position of President Lee Myung-bak
government to wait resolutely, the long-term blockage of South-North relations
causes direct tension and economic risk on the Korea Peninsula. In the imminent
situation where an economic crisis should be overcome, the suspension of
South-North relations and North Korea's sabre-rattling to the South inevitably
affect the Korean economy adversely. Any possible military provocation of North
Korea will lead to negative results in external creditworthiness and investment
of foreign capital.
In addition to aggravating the economic instability of South Korea, the
suspension of South-North relations is also disadvantageous to the Lee Myung-bak
government in that our initiative power over the issues facing the Korean
Peninsula is weakened in the diplomatic dimension. Unless two Koreas acquire an
independent channel of communication in the situation where North-U.S.
negotiation is in progress after inauguration of Obama executive, there is the
threat that South Korea will be sidelined amid bilateral negotiations between the
North and U.S., as in the period of Kim Young-sam government.
Particularly if two Koreas maintain focus solely on their relations with the
U.S., while their critical issues -- denuclearization of the North, normalization
of North and U.S. relations and the system of peace -- are discussed between the
North and U.S., the discussion will be inevitably incomplete. The severance of
South-North relations results in even greater damage and disadvantage to North
Korea. It has to suffer actual and physical loss as the food and economic support
provided by South is suspended.
In the New Year editorial of this year, North Korea emphasized that it will
complete a push to gain self sufficiency in food; a statement which demonstrates
its difficulty in providing food due to the severance of South-North relations.
The blockage of cash support caused by the suspension of tours to Mt. Kumgang and
Kaesung is another pain for North Korea. Given the political situation in North
Korea, which has vowed to become a great, prosperous and powerful country in
2012, the immediate and visible economic loss is obvious if economic benefit
supported by South is suspended for long time.
Further, the suspension of South-North relations leaves an unfavorable
environment for North-U.S. negotiations to be held later. The strategy of
so-called 'Tongmi Bongnam' -- the situation whereby North Korea communicates with
the U.S. and sidelines South Korea -- is possible only in the intention of North
Korea and thus it is impossible in reality. Indeed, aggravated South-North
relations adversely affect North Korea instead of the U.S. in the
Pyongyang-Washington negotiation. Past experiences showed the North-U.S.
negotiations were facilitated when South-North relations were in progress.
Conversely, the blockage in South-North relations served an obstacle to
North-U.S. negotiations. As President Obama has explicitly stated that progress
in South-North relations is the desirable direction of the political situation on
the Korean Peninsula in an article he wrote as a candidate, the suspension of
South-North relations due to Tongmi Bongnam will make negotiations with the U.S.
more difficult, even if North Korea desires smooth progress.
Considering the disadvantage and loss that both South and North inevitably suffer
due to suspension of relations, it is wise to break through the present blockage
through firm initiative. As the Lee Myung-bak government already emphasized
repeatedly that it is willing to discuss the implementation of agreements signed
in the 2000 and 2007 inter-Korean summit, it needs to avoid obscure utterances
that North Korea can misunderstand and to explicitly express its intention to
carry them out.
The South is more positive in its effort to restore relations. North Korea
constantly denounces the North Korea policy of the Lee Myung-bak government and
the president himself by name. This directly violates the spirit of mutual
respect specified in two declarations which are often asserted by the North. Even
the side which supports ethnic reconciliation and cooperation as well as progress
of South-North relation agrees that the denunciation in real name by North Korea
only aggravates the problem without giving any solution. North Korea has to
suspend personal attacks if it is to demand South Korea fulfill the declarations.
One year has been long enough for the South and North to nervously stand face to
face. Instead of passively waiting for the variable of U.S. policy decisions,
South and North Korea need to wisely and judiciously prepare for a breakthrough
via mutual effort.
(END)
Yet irrespective of such debates, the bigger problem is the view that the
initiative for breakthrough of the blockage in South-North Korean relation should
be found externally rather between the two countries themselves. Both South and
North Korea have adopted the position that only external change, namely the
inauguration of Obama and subsequent change of U.S. administration can prompt
progress in inter-Korean relations.
Needless to say, South-North relations can be positively affected by external
forces, namely an advance in North-U.S. relations and resolution of the North
Korean nuclear issue. If such an environment is constructed we must take
advantage of this advance. However, the South and North must still try to solve
problems for themselves instead of passively waiting for an external change,
because South and North suffer a greater disadvantage due to the long-term
blockage of South-North relation than anyone else.
Indeed, the suspension of South-North relations is a burden to South Korea's
government. Notwithstanding the official position of President Lee Myung-bak
government to wait resolutely, the long-term blockage of South-North relations
causes direct tension and economic risk on the Korea Peninsula. In the imminent
situation where an economic crisis should be overcome, the suspension of
South-North relations and North Korea's sabre-rattling to the South inevitably
affect the Korean economy adversely. Any possible military provocation of North
Korea will lead to negative results in external creditworthiness and investment
of foreign capital.
In addition to aggravating the economic instability of South Korea, the
suspension of South-North relations is also disadvantageous to the Lee Myung-bak
government in that our initiative power over the issues facing the Korean
Peninsula is weakened in the diplomatic dimension. Unless two Koreas acquire an
independent channel of communication in the situation where North-U.S.
negotiation is in progress after inauguration of Obama executive, there is the
threat that South Korea will be sidelined amid bilateral negotiations between the
North and U.S., as in the period of Kim Young-sam government.
Particularly if two Koreas maintain focus solely on their relations with the
U.S., while their critical issues -- denuclearization of the North, normalization
of North and U.S. relations and the system of peace -- are discussed between the
North and U.S., the discussion will be inevitably incomplete. The severance of
South-North relations results in even greater damage and disadvantage to North
Korea. It has to suffer actual and physical loss as the food and economic support
provided by South is suspended.
In the New Year editorial of this year, North Korea emphasized that it will
complete a push to gain self sufficiency in food; a statement which demonstrates
its difficulty in providing food due to the severance of South-North relations.
The blockage of cash support caused by the suspension of tours to Mt. Kumgang and
Kaesung is another pain for North Korea. Given the political situation in North
Korea, which has vowed to become a great, prosperous and powerful country in
2012, the immediate and visible economic loss is obvious if economic benefit
supported by South is suspended for long time.
Further, the suspension of South-North relations leaves an unfavorable
environment for North-U.S. negotiations to be held later. The strategy of
so-called 'Tongmi Bongnam' -- the situation whereby North Korea communicates with
the U.S. and sidelines South Korea -- is possible only in the intention of North
Korea and thus it is impossible in reality. Indeed, aggravated South-North
relations adversely affect North Korea instead of the U.S. in the
Pyongyang-Washington negotiation. Past experiences showed the North-U.S.
negotiations were facilitated when South-North relations were in progress.
Conversely, the blockage in South-North relations served an obstacle to
North-U.S. negotiations. As President Obama has explicitly stated that progress
in South-North relations is the desirable direction of the political situation on
the Korean Peninsula in an article he wrote as a candidate, the suspension of
South-North relations due to Tongmi Bongnam will make negotiations with the U.S.
more difficult, even if North Korea desires smooth progress.
Considering the disadvantage and loss that both South and North inevitably suffer
due to suspension of relations, it is wise to break through the present blockage
through firm initiative. As the Lee Myung-bak government already emphasized
repeatedly that it is willing to discuss the implementation of agreements signed
in the 2000 and 2007 inter-Korean summit, it needs to avoid obscure utterances
that North Korea can misunderstand and to explicitly express its intention to
carry them out.
The South is more positive in its effort to restore relations. North Korea
constantly denounces the North Korea policy of the Lee Myung-bak government and
the president himself by name. This directly violates the spirit of mutual
respect specified in two declarations which are often asserted by the North. Even
the side which supports ethnic reconciliation and cooperation as well as progress
of South-North relation agrees that the denunciation in real name by North Korea
only aggravates the problem without giving any solution. North Korea has to
suspend personal attacks if it is to demand South Korea fulfill the declarations.
One year has been long enough for the South and North to nervously stand face to
face. Instead of passively waiting for the variable of U.S. policy decisions,
South and North Korea need to wisely and judiciously prepare for a breakthrough
via mutual effort.
(END)
