Overreaction to N. Korea's rocket launch may trigger war: think tank

By Lee Chi-dong

SEOUL, April 1 (Yonhap) -- Regional powers should not overreact to North Korea's firing of a long-range rocket, as a tough response would likely result in the demise of the six-way talks on its nuclear program and even risk a war, an international security think tank said Wednesday.

The secretive communist nation's rocket engineers were apparently making their
final preparations for the launch of a three-stage rocket as part of what
Pyongyang claims is a peaceful space program, as the announced dates for the
launching -- between April 4 and 8 -- drew nearer.
South Korea, the U.S., and Japan view the rocket launch as a mask for the
development of an intercontinental ballistic missile, which North Korea is barred
from doing under a U.N. Security Council resolution.
"An overreaction to the test that prompts the North to abandon the six-party
talks would strengthen hardliners in Pyongyang," the International Crisis Group,
a non-governmental research institute, said in its latest report.
"Rather than raising the level of alarm over a launch that is likely to go ahead,
the other five members of the six-party talks should agree to a moderate set of
measures that maintains their unity in the face of North Korea's provocation,"
the Brussels-based group said.
The fitful negotiations also involve China and Russia. The group advised the
North's dialogue partners to include discussion on space cooperation if or when
the talks resume.
The suggestion comes on the heels of a comment by Hillary Clinton, U.S. secretary
of state, that North Korea will pay a price for the launch.
"We have said repeatedly that their missile launch violates U.N. Security Council
Resolution 1718, and there will be consequences certainly in the United Nations
Security Council if they proceed with the launch," Clinton told a news briefing
in the Hague.
Japan said it would propose a new resolution for additional sanctions against the
impoverished nation in case of a launch, and is gearing up to shoot down any
projectile that threatens to fall into its territory.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, however, said Washington has no plans to
try to intercept the North's rocket. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has
also openly said his country is opposed to any military reaction, spawning media
speculation that his conservative regime may be softening its stance towards the
launch.
Foreign Ministry officials in Seoul dismissed that idea, saying Lee's comments
are in line with South Korea's persistent efforts to ease tension on the
peninsula.
"President Lee's remarks do not mean that we will do nothing. Strong diplomatic
actions on the level of the U.N. Security Council will be needed," a ministry
official said.
He stressed that Seoul remains firm on its plan to seriously consider fully
joining the U.S.-led campaign to stem the flow of weapons of mass destruction if
the North fires a rocket. The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), launched
in 2003 by the Bush administration, has 94 member nations but South Korea has
confined its role to an observer so as not to further damage relations with the
North.
Many say South Korea missed a chance to join the PSI in 2006, when the North
conducted a nuclear test.
The North has responded sensitively to talk of either military or diplomatic
responses. It has warned that bringing the rocket issue to the security council
would put the nuclear talks in jeopardy and that Seoul's participation in the PSI
would be regarded as a declaration of war.