Korea FTA's ratification to take time despite summit rhetoric: experts

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, April 2 (Yonhap) -- U.S. experts see little chance of an imminent
breakthrough in congressional approval of a pending free trade deal with South
Korea, despite rosy rhetoric from U.S. President Barack Obama at his first summit
with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

In the meeting Thursday in London on the sidelines of the G20 economic summit,
Lee and Obama "agreed that the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement could bring
benefits to both countries and committed to working together to chart a way
forward," a statement released by the White House said. "They both stressed the
importance of avoiding protectionism and economic nationalism."
Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, however, said,
"Despite seemingly positive rhetoric during the Obama-Lee meeting, there are no
indications that the Obama administration has abandoned its protectionist
viewpoint or intent to rework the auto section of the KORUS FTA."
The auto provisions are the thorniest issue in the bilateral trade deal, the
biggest for the U.S. since the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993.
Troublesome also is South Korea's ban on shipments of beef from cattle older than
30 months due to concerns over mad cow disease.
U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk recently said that he "will promptly, but
effectively, address the issues surrounding the KORUS FTA, including concerns
that have been expressed regarding automotive trade," before bringing the Korea
FTA to Congress for ratification.
Kirk also said he will prioritize beef before moving to the auto issue.
The Korea FTA, signed in 2007, is awaiting congressional approval amid growing
protectionism in the Democrat-controlled Congress, which fears its ratification
will undermine support from U.S. trade unions, their political base, due to
possible job cuts in the worst recession in decades.
Obama has opposed ratification of what he called a "badly flawed" free trade
agreement with South Korea due to an auto trade imbalance, although South Korea
disputes the U.S. figures, which include hundreds of thousands of autos produced
by Hyundai Motor's plant in Alabama.
"There is little likelihood of a breakthrough in FTA ratification since the
Democratic-controlled Congress remains beholden to the interests of the auto
lobby," Klingner said.
U.S. congressmen have also complained about South Korea's ban on shipments of
beef from older cattle due to concerns over mad cow disease, a case of which was
reported in 2003 at a cattle farm in the state of Washington.
Seoul and Washington agreed to limit shipments of beef to those from cattle less
than 30 months old after the resumption of U.S. beef imports caused a public
outcry in South Korea last summer.
U.S. beef regained its status as the biggest selling product in South Korea
against Korean and Australian beef just months after full scale imports began
again late last year.
South Korea's National Assembly is delaying deliberations on the Korea-U.S. FTA,
citing growing pessimism in the U.S. Congress.
Barry Bosworth, senior research fellow at the Brookings Institution, also was
skeptical.
"I think the statement on the FTA is fine, but it will not be submitted to the
U.S. Congress anytime in the near future," he said. "The administration will be
too fearful of an adverse reaction that leads to protectionist responses. I think
action by mid-June is extremely unlikely."
Victor Cha, professor of Georgetown University, also said he does not expect any
breakthrough by June, when Lee is to visit Washington for further consultations
on the FTA, North Korea and other bilateral and global issues of concern.
Some U.S. officials and experts have proposed that the sides come up with a
"creative" way to circumvent a renegotiation, which Seoul vehemently opposes.
A senior aide to Obama said he was cautious about growing optimism in South Korea.
"There was not talk of a schedule," the aide said, asking anonymity. "There was
simply an acknowledgment that this was going to take time."
Another White House official said that Obama told Lee in the summit that he
"understood there were difficulties on both sides on moving forward, but he said
he does want to make progress and our staffs should discuss how to move forward."
South Korean officials have said they will not renegotiate the FTA, while some
experts suggest addressing shortfalls by way of side agreements or other forms
without revising the agreement itself.
Despite some hurdles to the FTA's ratification, Kirk has underscored its
benefits, including consolidation of the bilateral alliance and a boost to the
U.S. economy.
The top U.S. trade negotiator recently said that the Korea FTA "would help to
solidify the two countries' long-standing geostrategic alliance in addition to
strengthening our economic partnership."
Kirk has also noted that the Korea FTA "would add US$10 billion to $12 billion to
annual U.S. Gross Domestic Product and around $10 billion to annual merchandise
exports to Korea."
The U.S. also fears that any failure to ratify the Korea FTA will have an adverse
impact of U.S. products in South Korea, which has been moving to conclude similar
FTAs with the European Union, China, Japan and several other countries.
hdh@yna.co.kr
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