N. Korea likely to prolong threat of nuclear test: U.S. expert

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, May 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korea will likely play out its threat to conduct
a second nuclear test in order to draw the maximum amount of outside attention,
possibly for months, a U.S. expert said Friday.

"The longer they drag it out, the more people pay attention," Ralph Cossa, head
of the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS), said in an interview. "North Korea is not in any rush...probably,
by the summer."
North Korea, which detonated a nuclear device in 2006, said last month it would
go ahead with additional nuclear and missile tests unless the U.N. apologizes for
its condemnation of the April 5 rocket launch by Pyongyang.
The country claims it orbited a satellite with the launch. The U.S. and its
allies say it was a disguised test of ballistic missile technology banned under a
U.N. resolution.
North Korea also recently expelled U.S. and international monitors from its
nuclear reactor in Yongbyon, where it is believed to have produced at least 30
kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium.
"It's highly likely that the North Koreans feel they need another test for
technical reasons as well as for political reasons," Cossa said, speaking on the
sidelines of an academic forum in Seoul. "They'll probably drag it out. They
dragged the missile test for quite some time."
Cossa, a former U.S. Air Force colonel, discounted the political impact that a
second nuclear test would generate to the advantage of North Korea, which has
drawn concessions through saber-rattling.
"It won't make them any more or any less a threat than they were the day before,"
he said. "The first nuclear test was significant because they demonstrated a
certain ability. Now that's a given. A second test doesn't create a crisis unless
we create a crisis."
"So what we don't want to do is appear like the North Koreans have the upper
hand," he said, adding even if Pyongyang produced additional plutonium for
another nuclear bomb in six months, the difference would be "pretty
insignificant."
The U.S. and South Korea believe North Korea has enough plutonium to make up to
six atomic bombs. The communist state has 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods, which
could be reprocessed to build another bomb in less than half a year.
"If we are smart, we need to list what the sanctions will be in advance. We don't
wait for the North Koreans to make it a problem," he said, suggesting inspections
against North Korean cargo could be stepped up under U.N. leadership after a
second nuclear test.
samkim@yna.co.kr
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