Turkish Analysts to QNA: Presidential Elections' Results are Open to All Possible Options
Doha, May 13 (QNA) - Turkish political analysts have unanimously agreed that the upcoming Turkish presidential elections on Sunday will be the strongest, powerful and most competitive among the three candidates, namely Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the nominee of Turkiye's People's Alliance party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate for the Nation Alliance and Sinan Ogan, the nominee of the ATA alliance (Alliance of Ancestors), after the withdrawal of Muharram Ince.
In exclusive statements to Qatar News Agency (QNA), the analysts said all options are possible in these elections, adding that it is hard to have confidence in the findings of the opinion polls that come out at the present time, especially since most of the parties that stand behind these polls are serving specific agendas.
The analysts' predictions varied concerning the elections' results, where some of them see that elections will not be determined just from the first round, but there will be a re-election round, whilst others say Erdogan will be capable of determining the elections' results for his party from the first round with a slight disparity from his closest contender Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate for the Nation Alliance.
They pointed out to the existential role of some foreign parties whether they are states or organizations, including numerous factors that would have their impacts on the results, and perhaps one side will outweigh the other, but eventually the decision remains for the Turkish voter. As the voter in the presidential elections may not adhere to the partisan affiliations to which he/she belongs, and many voters may deviate from the framework of their narrow affiliation with the party and vote according to their personal preferences and not to the preferences of the party.
For his part, Researcher at SETA Foundation, Foreign Policy Research Department in Ankara Bilal Salaymeh underlined that the Turkish presidential elections will not be decided from the first round and might see a second round, because votes are distributed among the key candidates, namely Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Sinan Ogan.
The joining of the Peoples' Democratic Party to the opposition front, which is the parties of the six-party table, supports this front, Salaymeh told QNA, pointing out that this increases the chances of its candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, especially since the Peoples' Democratic Party has a large electoral base.
He predicted that the elections are set to witness high popular turnout because of the polarization size that preceded them as well as the significance of that electoral struggle in Turkiye's history, indicating that young voters will have an influential bloc to dramatically determine these elections.
For his part, the political analyst and member of the Justice and Development Party Yusef Katabioglu said the presidential elections will be decisive as opposed to their predecessors because they hold extremely significant objectives, and notwithstanding of these alliances and blocs the elections will be determined in the first round in favor of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In statements to QNA, Katabioglu said there is a foreign support to the Turkish opposition, because the Turkish model under the leadership of Erdogan keeps disturbing the foreign entities very much, where Turkiye has become a major regional country and has been influential in foreign and regional policies.
He added that the opposition's alliance will not be able to receive more than %50 in these elections due to defections.
For his part, Turkish political analyst Yusuf Katabioglu told QNA that the earthquake that hit Turkiye had its humanitarian and economic repercussions, affecting 11 provinces and 13 million of their residents, in addition to a cost of damage bill of USD 104 billion, along with many humanitarian consequences.
He added that it was a great challenge for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to decide not to postpone elections despite the earthquake crisis, a decision which indicated his strength and confidence: not wanting to create a situation that could be seen as a pretext, a decision that resonates positively with the Turkish voter.
Katabioglu stressed that these elections will experience a large voting turnout, with an estimated participation rate exceeding 85 percent. He also expected the opposition to attempt to show grievances in response to the progress the People's Alliance party is doing according to polls, not ruling out the possibility of crises being created as a result. However, he said that these elections are not Turkiye's first, with many mechanisms put in place to ensure elections integrity.
For his part, Turkish affairs expert and Research Assistant Professor of international relations, security and defense at the Ibn Khaldon Center Dr. Ali Bakir said to QNA that the Turkish voter will focus heavily on every candidate's priorities with regard to domestic politics, being something that directly affects voters' daily lives, disregarding the belief that opposition parties' agenda coincides with foreign trends, especially Western ones, considering that such matters do not affect the Turkish voter.
He said that there is an undeclared alliance between the Peoples' Democratic Party and the table of six-parties, explaining that the goal behind not announcing this alliance officially is due to two main reasons; the first is to deprive the Justice and Development Party and its allies the possibility of criticizing the opposition and the second reason being to maintain the cohesion of the alliance, especially given the Good Party's strong opposition to any alliance with the Peoples' Democratic Party.
Bakir stressed that the Kurdish bloc is a large one and tends to often vote as a bloc, meaning that Kurdish votes do not get dispersed as those of the nationalists, Islamists and leftists, in addition, he explained that the Kurdish vote often focuses on the Kurdish national element, with the existence of some small Kurdish parties within the larger Kurdish bloc that have conservative or Islamic leanings, who do not usually vote left, yet the opposition and the Peoples' Democratic Party are working towards making these Kurdish votes go for the table of six candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
Talking to QNA, Dr. Ali Bakir, an expert on Turkish affairs and professor of international relations, security and defense at the Ibn Khaldun Center at Qatar University, said that voting in presidential elections usually takes place within the partisan framework but some exceptions may occur, which makes each vote important, regardless of the voter's party affiliation. This is why there is intense competition to attract even small parties that may not have weight at the level of local politics, but they are attracted to enter alliances or support one of the presidential candidates to secure the largest possible number of votes from outside the traditional electoral bloc for all candidates, he said. Therefore, the role of small parties is important in these elections, he added.
Historical experience confirms that many opinion polls conducted by some institutions during election periods may not be accurate or even close to reality, except for some exceptions, and therefore it is difficult to consider the results of those polls, Dr. Bakir added.
He pointed out that some institutions that conduct opinion polls act according to political agendas, and thus their work becomes closer to electoral propaganda than to assessing reality.
The opposition parties, he noted, are betting on obtaining the largest number of votes in the coastal areas in addition to the main cities such as Istanbul and Ankara, while the Justice and Development Party is looking for securing the largest number of votes inside Turkiye, which is the heart of Anatolia, in addition to the major cities.
Voter turnout in all Turkish elections is among the highest in the world, which is a response to skeptics about the legitimacy of the elections’ results or the legitimacy of the resulting political or party formations, he added, expecting that there will be high participation regardless of the percentage that will be recorded. He pointed out that some expectations indicate that the turnout will reach 90 percent, a historic turnout if it happens.
Dr. Bakir noted that these elections are considered the strongest, most competitive, and important, explaining that estimates about the results may not be accurate at the present time, especially since there are many variables seen in these elections for the first time unlike previous times, including the form of alliances, the role of small parties, and the form of the voting process. Therefore, the results of these elections are open to all possibilities, he said.
For his part, Dr. Saeed Al Hajj, a researcher on Turkish affairs, said there is a state of polarization and great alliances in these elections. Therefore, the competition will be strong between the candidates, he said. Expecting the elections to witness a run-off, he added that they will not be decided in the first round.
Speaking to QNA, Dr. Al Hajj said that there are external parties playing a role in these elections whether they are states or organizations that want to remove Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from ruling Turkiye, but the important question is to what extent these external parties can influence these elections.
He added that the Turkish voter will eventually decide the Turkish elections. Although these external parties may have an impact on the Turkish economy or have a role in coordinating the positions of the opposition, voters will determine the winner in these elections. During previous elections, it was noticed that foreign intervention against Erdogan eventually comes in his favor because it pushed people more and more to unite behind him, he said.
Regarding the results of opinion polls in Turkiye, he said there is a problem with the companies that have been conducting these polls for many years. Most of these companies are linked to political parties, and therefore they issue results that serve the candidate they support and some of these companies are recently set up and lack the required professional tools. In addition, the Turkish public does not trust the results of these polls, he said. (QNA)
