Syria crisis is critical juncture for Russia

TEHRAN, July 23 (MNA) -- Given the historical background of conflicts in the Middle East, Russia decided to support the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria from the beginning of the unrest in the country in March 2011 in order to counter the West’s interventionist policies in the region. The recent escalation of violence in Syria has created new threats for Russia’s strategic interests, but nevertheless, Moscow continues to support the Syrian government. This was clearly proven during former United Nations secretary general Kofi Annan’s recent visit to Russia, in which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted that Moscow would not revise its position toward Syria. On the other hand, if the opposition wins the current battle in Syria, Russia’s position in the region and on the international stage will be seriously undermined. Historically, the Syria crisis should be viewed as a very critical juncture for Russia. If Assad wins the battle, Russia will gain many advantages, but if he loses, Moscow will suffer a serious setback. The latest escalation of violence in Damascus and the killing of some prominent figures of Assad’s government will compel Russian officials to take more precautions. Moscow has repeatedly announced that it is not only committed to the protection of the Syrian government, but rather, Russia’s main priority is the full implementation of Annan’s peace plan for Syria. This means that if the situation deteriorates for Assad, there is a possibility that the Russians will stop supporting him in order to protect their interests in Syria and avoid a major loss. Russia is also very concerned about its position in the Caucasus. If Russia fails to realize its objectives in Syria, it will create a serious threat for Moscow’s strategic position in the Caucasus, and Turkey will find the long-expected opportunity to take Russia’s place in the region. This would also pave the way for countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia to begin playing a more influential role in the region by encouraging extremists in the Caucasus to pile up more pressure on Russia. Bearing all this in mind, it can be said that Russia is compelled to continue its support for the Syrian government. Otherwise, it will face serious setbacks and defeats in the region. Mahmoud Shouri is an expert on Russian politics based in Tehran. (By Mahmoud Shouri)