FOCUS: Masuzoe may lose luster, but could trigger realignment after poll+

TOKYO, April 24 Kyodo -
Yoichi Masuzoe has come to the fore in recent opinion polls asking who is most
suitable to be prime minister amid falling public support for the ruling
Democratic Party of Japan.
But the luster he possessed as a member of the once-dominant Liberal Democratic
Party could soon diminish now that the former international politics professor
has formed a tiny party with politicians relying on his popularity for their
own survival.
Pundits say, meanwhile, that the creation of the new party as well as other
recently launched splinter groups could lead to a major realignment of Japanese
politics if the embattled DPJ fails to secure a majority in the upper house in
this summer's election.
Masuzoe, a 61-year-old House of Councillors lawmaker, launched ''Shinto
Kaikaku'' (new party for reform) after leaving the LDP with five others who are
putting their political futures on the line in the upcoming upper house
election.
Although Masuzoe often leads in opinion polls, political observers are
skeptical about whether the leader of such a ragtag group will be able to
maintain his popularity.
Masuzoe, who was critical of the LDP leadership, ''was stuck in a deadlock (in
the LDP) and the five offered him a lifeboat with the idea that it could float
on the back of his popularity,'' said Kazuhisa Kawakami, professor of politics
at Meiji Gakuin University.
''Does such a party look attractive to voters? No,'' he said.
Masuzoe grabbed public attention as an outspoken TV commentator during the
1980s, when he was an associate professor of international politics at the
University of Tokyo.
After running unsuccessfully in the 1999 Tokyo gubernatorial election, he won
his first Diet seat on the LDP ticket in the July 2001 upper house election,
racking up more than 1.5 million votes, the most under the proportional
representation system.
Masuzoe's popularity has since grown. Magazine articles about his experience of
nursing his senile mother led many to empathize and set the stage for him to
assume the post of health, labor and welfare minister.
Shortly after being reelected to the upper house in July 2007, he was picked as
health minister by then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and retained the post until
September 2009 in two subsequent LDP-led governments.
The LDP's crushing defeat in the general election last August put him in the
political shade. But he regained attention earlier this year, this time as a
harsh critic of LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki.
Masuzoe has said he left the LDP because he was frustrated with the party's
failure to win back public support.
But some observers say while Masuzoe may have had no choice but to quit the LDP
because he found few allies for his attempts to carry out intraparty reform, if
he had stayed in the party he would have been able to do much better in
achieving his goal of sweeping the DPJ and Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama from
power.
Political analysts say the recent creation of breakaway political groups could
even work in favor of the DPJ as the new parties will vie for conservative
votes with the LDP.
In the last few weeks, the Sunrise Party of Japan, or Tachiagare Nippon, was
formed by former ministers Takeo Hiranuma and Kaoru Yosano, and other LDP
defectors, and two other parties were launched by local leaders.
But some of the observers point out that these parties could play a crucial
role in political realignment if the DPJ fails to secure a majority in the
upper house following this summer's election, making it difficult for the
ruling party to implement policies.
The DPJ's victory in the House of Representatives election brought an end to
the LDP's almost unbroken rule since it was established in 1955, but the ruling
party still needs the cooperation of two minor coalition partners to ensure the
smooth passage of legislation.
Kawakami of Meiji Gakuin University said that if the DPJ loses the election,
DPJ Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa, viewed as a powerful kingmaker in Japanese
politics, could move to create a new splinter group by destroying the DPJ,
dissolving the alliance with the Social Democratic Party, ousting socialist
elements from the DPJ and joining hands with LDP lawmakers.
Kawakami said the newly launched small parties have the potential to become ''a
driving force'' in a major transformation of Japan's political landscape.
In announcing the six-member party Friday, Masuzoe said Shinto Kaikaku will aim
to woo voters as a third force as people are disappointed with the DPJ but do
not expect the LDP to make a comeback either.
But he failed to present any policies to accentuate its differences from either
of the two major parties.
==Kyodo