FOCUS: Outlook for main parties in upper house election looks murky+

TOKYO, May 7 Kyodo -
With about two months left before an upper house election this summer, the
outcome is hard to foresee as public support falls away from the
eight-month-old government led by the Democratic Party of Japan, while the
major opposition Liberal Democratic Party is in a lackluster state following
its election defeat last year.
Adding to the two parties' woes has been the appearance of new parties seeking
to woo voters disillusioned by the DPJ but equally dissatisfied with the LDP.
The House of Councillors election, most likely to be held on July 11, will
serve as of test of how the public evaluates Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's
government, formed in September in the wake of the landslide victory by
Hatoyama's DPJ over the LDP in the House of Representatives election the
previous month.
Critics say there are three major issues in the upcoming election -- how many
of the campaign promises made by the DPJ prior to last year's election have
been fulfilled, the government's handling of a dispute over the relocation of a
U.S. military base in Okinawa, and scandals involving political funds that
embroiled Hatoyama and DPJ Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa.
Political observers agree that it looks extremely difficult for the DPJ to
achieve its goal of winning 60 seats, or about half the 121 seats that will be
up for grabs in the election, to gain a single-party majority.
With 116 seats in the 242-member upper house, the DPJ currently lacks a
majority and relies on support from its junior coalition partners -- the Social
Democratic Party and the People's New Party -- to pass legislation without
support from the opposition camp.
A major source of concern for the DPJ is plummeting support ratings for the
Cabinet.
According to a Kyodo News survey, the rating stood at 72.0 percent immediately
after the Sept. 16 launch of the Hatoyama government, marking one of the
highest figures among recent Cabinets as the public hailed the change of
government.
But the government's approval rating tumbled to 36.3 percent in early March and
further declined to 20.7 percent in late April.
Some analysts point out the similarity between the drop in support for the
Hatoyama Cabinet and for two recent LDP-led Cabinets. Taro Aso, Hatoyama's
predecessor as prime minister, and Shinzo Abe, who was premier between 2006 and
2007, both enjoyed buoyant ratings immediately after their governments were
inaugurated, only to see them drop sharply over the course of roughly one year
until a national election, in which the LDP suffered big losses and the LDP
leader resigned as prime minister.
Ozawa, the DPJ's election campaign strategist, is aiming to field two or more
candidates in multiseat constituencies in which two or more seats will be
contested, since he believes this will boost the chances of the party securing
a majority in the chamber.
With public enthusiasm over last year's change of government dwindling,
however, critic say such a plan could divide support for two DPJ candidates in
the same constituency and result in neither winning.
Meanwhile, the support rating for the LDP, which was at 18.8 percent last
September, remains little changed.
The largest opposition party aims to prevent the ruling coalition from securing
a majority in the upcoming race. That will be achieved if the LDP and other
opposition parties win a total of 69 seats.
The key to the challenge for the opposition camp will be the number of votes
the recently established parties will be able to garner.
In particular, attention is focused on how well Your Party will perform, as the
party, headed by reformist lower house member Yoshimi Watanabe, has seen its
ratings rise rapidly.
Watanabe recently said his party would be able to win as many as 20 seats.
Other new parties expected to run in the election include the New Renaissance
Party, headed by LDP defector and former heath minister Yoichi Masuzoe, the
Sunrise Party of Japan led by another former LDP member and former trade
minister Takeo Hiranuma, and the Spirit of Japan Party, which was formed by
incumbent and former local government chiefs. The party's representative is
Tokyo's Suginami Ward Mayor Hiroshi Yamada.
==Kyodo
2010-05-07 23:19:52


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