Guarded welcome, scepticism regarding southern 'ceasefire'

BANGKOK, July 18 (TNA) - Response to the oddly-announced 'ceasefire' in the insurgency-wracked southernmost Thai provinces was welcomed Thursday, but with much caution and scepticism, as the broadcast raised as many questions as it answered.

Neither the government nor the military command officially responded to the announcement, and no one appeared to know the identities of the men on camera.

Meanwhile business, community and political figures reacted with guarded welcome and scepticism.

The head of the Thai Chamber of Commerce urged the public to watch closely to see just how far the ethnic Malay insurgents who announced a return to peace on national television earlier in the day will be sincere and honour their pledge to institute a ceasefire throughout the border region.

Thai Chamber of Commerce chairman Pramon Suthiwong said he was uncertain whether there was a hidden motive or benefit behind the announcement by three men claiming to represent 11 underground insurgent groups that the militants would end their armed struggle in the three southernmost provinces – Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat.

Mr. Pramon urged the public to not to give too much credence to the
announcement, but to wait and see its result.

However, if the ceasefire is genuine, trade, investment and tourism in the South -- and not only the iunsurgency-troubled provinces -- will improve while the residents of the region would have a peaceful life, Mr. Pramon said.

Director Thanawat Polvichai of the University of the Thai Chamber of
Commerce (UTCC) Economic and Business Forecasting Center said security
officials would be able to confirm whether the insurgents' announcement of the ceasefire is genuine or not.

If peace returns, it will benefit the Thai economy in general, and foreign tourists would visit the region in larger numbers again.

Three men calling themselves the Thailand United Southern Underground
group representing 11 insurgent organisations operating in the region
announced via a satellite television broadcast that they had negotiated a ceasefire beginning July 14.

The ceasefire was negotiated between the unknown insurgent group with
retired Army Gen. Chetta Thanajaro, leader of the Ruam Jai Thai Chart
Pattana political party.

Gen. Chetta, a former defense minister, said later Thursday he personally believed the three men represented insurgent groups and that they wanted to cease operations.

"The outcome should be known within the next 30 days," Gen. Chetta said, adding that he would solely take the responsibility if anything happens.

Gen. Chetta said he would formally inform Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej of the ceasefire through Army chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda, stressing that he had not informed the prime minister earlier because negotiations were conducted under the utmost confidentiality without conditions.

The former Army chief reasoned that negotiations with the insurgent
leaders could not be made through government channels because they were made through several middlemen.

He thanked Malaysia and several neutral countries who had given their
support during the negotiations process.

Deputy Prime Minister/Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee expressed joy at the announcement, saying that tourism and border trade, especially in Hat Yai district near Thai-Malaysian border, should recover and the economy should improve in the next few months.

Meanwhile, Narathiwat Democrat MP Jeh-aming Tohtayong was sceptical
because he and other villagers who sat together watching the announcement on television did not know the trio who appeared on the broadcast and were not sure that the men were really leading members of the group having had authority to make such a promise.

Mr. Jeh-aming said he had many questions including details about Gen.
Chettha's role in brokening the accord, in what capacity, and whether the government knew about it.

However, he said, if this was not a practical joke, it would be good for the country and could help resolve the violence in the deep south.

The Democrat MP said he would monitor the situation in the southern
provinces for several days to see whether the situation would become
better.