ASEAN mulls options for U.S., Russia role in regional architecture+

HANOI, July 16 Kyodo -
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is mulling two modalities for
engaging the United States and Russia in the regional architecture: allowing
them to join the already established East Asia Summit or setting up a new
''ASEAN+8'' forum for top-level dialogue, according to ASEAN sources.
The issue is expected to be a major topic at annual meetings of senior
officials and foreign ministers of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam that begin Saturday
in Hanoi.
The first, easiest and currently most popular option, the sources said, is to
accommodate the interest of the United States and Russia in engaging more
closely in East Asia by simply expanding the 16-member EAS to accommodate them.
Established in 2005, the EAS currently comprises the 10 ASEAN members plus
China, Japan, S. Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. It meets annually.
The other proposal, put forward by Singapore, is to arrange for the United
States and Russia to join the 10 ASEAN members and their six regional dialogue
partners in regular but informal ASEAN+8 meetings.
Singapore argues that an ASEAN+8 would be the more practical modality for U.S.
and Russian engagement as it would avoid a number of pitfalls that could arise
from EAS expansion.
Among them is that expanding the EAS to include the United States and Russia at
this point risks stalling one of the EAS' major initiatives, an ambitious
ASEAN+6 free trade agreement known as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership
for East Asia.
Another worry is that the U.S. president would be hard-pressed to attend the
EAS every year in addition to Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits.
ASEAN's concern here is that inconsistent summit-level participation would
discredit and weaken the EAS as well as ASEAN itself.
Despite the apparent importance U.S. President Barack Obama attaches to East
Asia, he has postponed trips here at the last minute due to pressing issues at
home, though he committed to attend APEC summits.
Unlike the EAS, however, the proposed ASEAN+8 summits need not be convened
annually, according to the Singapore proposal. Rather, they could be held every
two to three years, back-to-back with APEC summits whenever they are held in
Asia.
Another concern in expanding the EAS is that doing so too rapidly might render
it unwieldy and ineffective. By allowing in the United States and Russia, ASEAN
likely would find it hard to decline other aspirants like the European Union
and Canada.
The 10-member grouping is especially keen to ensure its long-term relevancy and
credibility and to preserve its ''centrality'' in the regional architecture of
East Asia.
The upcoming talks in Hanoi, which include a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers
on Tuesday, are thus expected to take up the issue of how ASEAN can remain the
driving force when it comes to setting the agenda for either EAS or ASEAN+8
meetings.
Singapore says that as the ASEAN+8 would be an ASEAN undertaking, ASEAN would
remain as the ''hub'' and the other eight countries as the ''spokes.'' The
meetings would not only be hosted and chaired by ASEAN, but the agenda would be
determined by ASEAN.
It proposes that the ASEAN+8 focus on political-security issues, thereby
filling a gap in the existing regional architecture since the EAS focuses on
economic and financial matters and cooperation in such areas as health,
environment, education and disaster relief.
One concern about Singapore's proposal for ASEAN+8 summits held back-to-back
with APEC summits is that three ASEAN members --Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar --
are not members of APEC.
But proponents of an ASEAN+8 argue that their attendance on the margins of the
APEC summit would strengthen their case for eventual APEC membership.
Observers say that if the foreign ministers can make progress in Hanoi next
week in determining which modality is best, ASEAN leaders might be able to
reach a decision when they meet in October.
==Kyodo
2010-07-16 23:13:57