ID :
160777
Mon, 02/14/2011 - 09:12
Auther :
Shortlink :
https://www.oananews.org//node/160777
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UK peace campaigner doubtful of peaceful transition in Egypt
London, Feb 14, IRNA -- British peace activist and justice campaigner James Thring remains doubtful that there will be a peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt despite the removal of former president Hosni Mubarak.
"It seems unlikely there will be a smooth transition as the people will realise they have been duped and controlled by foreign forces again and may yet rise up in protest once more,” said Thring, convener of the London-based Planning for Peace.
His concern comes amid reports of a tense stand-off in Cairo's Tahrir Square Sunday as protesters who have camped there for 20 days to thwart army efforts to clear the area.
The military leaders also reaffirmed Egypt's commitment to all its international treaties, including with Israel, and asked the current government to stay on until a new one was formed.
“Army generals, loyal to Mubarak for 30 years, hold the reins and may use their power to suppress the inevitable unrest that will re-ignite if a more 'democratic' constitution and fair elections does not produce a more popular result,” Thring told IRNA.
He suggested that with democracy not be safe from the “countering the corruptive influence of Washington, Tel Aviv and the global oligarchs,” a new form of military dictatorship may ensue.
The peace campaigner also warned that vice-president Omar Suleiman is a “ruthless tool of Tel Aviv and Washington” and that the intelligence he has gathered for many years could be used to sabotage the revolution.
His pessimism was further based on the time it takes to draft and agree a new constitution which Egypt will now need and for the time even to plan for a smooth transition from the status quo ante to a status which satisfies the majority.
The transition would involve a system of government that will be inclusive whilst being effective and must re-engineer economic growth whilst producing immediate benefits for people struggling under high inflation and low wages, poor services and low investment, Thring said.
“This planning cannot be done in the interests of the Egyptian people whilst Israel and Washington are already covertly interfering in the new political scene, urging Suleiman to reinforce the border and offering help to disperse revolutionaries,” he warned.
The justice researcher said that already there was little evidence that the largest representative opposition parties have much input into the new system.
“The Muslim Brotherhood remains banned and the negotiations seem to be going on behind closed doors; doors closed to Egyptians but not to Americans and Israelis and their acolytes,” he said.
Under the current conditions, Thring believed that the next few months will see a “gradual stranglehold on the designers of the new constitution so that it preserves Israel's 'security'.”
“It will go largely unreported and so the unrest will simmer again until it re-reaches boiling point when the renewed stranglehold is revealed and elections are announced,” he told IRNA.
He suggested that to avoid the Muslim Brotherhood gaining the power it deserves, the “plotters will probably try the same trick they played on Iraq - fielding so many parties and candidates that no party gets a clear majority vote.
“It will look very 'democratic' but the result will be political chaos,” Thring warned, predicting that under the smoke screen the influence of the US and Israel will end up “more in control than before.”
A more optimistic scenario, he said, is that Mohamed ElBaradei is the “next most favoured candidate by Washington and Tel Aviv” and may inject a measure of justice into the planning to produce a more Islamic and peaceful flavour to the new system of government.
But Thring believed that many will be unhappy with his record at the IAEA in “not resisting the Zionist propaganda against Iran's civil nuclear programme.”
Mohamed ElBaradei could help to see that the Muslim Brotherhood was recognised and it would thus gain 30-40% of votes, becoming a dominant party in government, helping to redistribute wealth, re-invigorate the economy and reduce social malaise, he predicted.
But even under the less pessimistic scenario, the peace campaigner believed that Egypt would become more independent only for a while, as it would be “ostracised by Israel and more importantly, its allies, especially the US and EU, which may lead to another cycle of threats, economic strangulation, poverty and unrest.”/end
"It seems unlikely there will be a smooth transition as the people will realise they have been duped and controlled by foreign forces again and may yet rise up in protest once more,” said Thring, convener of the London-based Planning for Peace.
His concern comes amid reports of a tense stand-off in Cairo's Tahrir Square Sunday as protesters who have camped there for 20 days to thwart army efforts to clear the area.
The military leaders also reaffirmed Egypt's commitment to all its international treaties, including with Israel, and asked the current government to stay on until a new one was formed.
“Army generals, loyal to Mubarak for 30 years, hold the reins and may use their power to suppress the inevitable unrest that will re-ignite if a more 'democratic' constitution and fair elections does not produce a more popular result,” Thring told IRNA.
He suggested that with democracy not be safe from the “countering the corruptive influence of Washington, Tel Aviv and the global oligarchs,” a new form of military dictatorship may ensue.
The peace campaigner also warned that vice-president Omar Suleiman is a “ruthless tool of Tel Aviv and Washington” and that the intelligence he has gathered for many years could be used to sabotage the revolution.
His pessimism was further based on the time it takes to draft and agree a new constitution which Egypt will now need and for the time even to plan for a smooth transition from the status quo ante to a status which satisfies the majority.
The transition would involve a system of government that will be inclusive whilst being effective and must re-engineer economic growth whilst producing immediate benefits for people struggling under high inflation and low wages, poor services and low investment, Thring said.
“This planning cannot be done in the interests of the Egyptian people whilst Israel and Washington are already covertly interfering in the new political scene, urging Suleiman to reinforce the border and offering help to disperse revolutionaries,” he warned.
The justice researcher said that already there was little evidence that the largest representative opposition parties have much input into the new system.
“The Muslim Brotherhood remains banned and the negotiations seem to be going on behind closed doors; doors closed to Egyptians but not to Americans and Israelis and their acolytes,” he said.
Under the current conditions, Thring believed that the next few months will see a “gradual stranglehold on the designers of the new constitution so that it preserves Israel's 'security'.”
“It will go largely unreported and so the unrest will simmer again until it re-reaches boiling point when the renewed stranglehold is revealed and elections are announced,” he told IRNA.
He suggested that to avoid the Muslim Brotherhood gaining the power it deserves, the “plotters will probably try the same trick they played on Iraq - fielding so many parties and candidates that no party gets a clear majority vote.
“It will look very 'democratic' but the result will be political chaos,” Thring warned, predicting that under the smoke screen the influence of the US and Israel will end up “more in control than before.”
A more optimistic scenario, he said, is that Mohamed ElBaradei is the “next most favoured candidate by Washington and Tel Aviv” and may inject a measure of justice into the planning to produce a more Islamic and peaceful flavour to the new system of government.
But Thring believed that many will be unhappy with his record at the IAEA in “not resisting the Zionist propaganda against Iran's civil nuclear programme.”
Mohamed ElBaradei could help to see that the Muslim Brotherhood was recognised and it would thus gain 30-40% of votes, becoming a dominant party in government, helping to redistribute wealth, re-invigorate the economy and reduce social malaise, he predicted.
But even under the less pessimistic scenario, the peace campaigner believed that Egypt would become more independent only for a while, as it would be “ostracised by Israel and more importantly, its allies, especially the US and EU, which may lead to another cycle of threats, economic strangulation, poverty and unrest.”/end
