Obama likely to engage N. Korea aggressively, seek FTA adjustments

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- The Barack Obama administration will likely engage
North Korea more intensively than the Bush administration while seeking
adjustments for the passage of a free trade deal with South Korea.

During the two-year presidential campaign, Obama has expressed on several
occasions his willingness to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, while his
Republican rival, John McCain, charged that such a meeting would legitimize the
dictatorship of the reclusive North Korean leader.
"As president, Mr. Obama will engage more intensively in bilateral negotiations
with North Korea than President Bush has done," said David Straub, associate
director of Korean Studies at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center,
Stanford University. "Mr. Obama is prepared in principle even to meet personally
with the North Korean leader."
In the first presidential debate in September, Obama said he reserves "the right
as president of the United States to meet with anybody at a time and place of my
choosing if I think it's going to keep America safe."
The president-elect said North Korea has tested its first nuclear device,
quadrupled its nuclear arsenal to eight bombs and spread its nuclear technology
to Syria while the Bush administration was neglecting to directly engage the
North for the first six years of its eight-year tenure.
"We should have contacts without preconditions. The idea is that we do not expect
to solve every problem before we initiate talks. And you know, the Bush
administration has come to recognize that it hasn't worked, this notion that we
are simply silent when it comes to our enemies," he said.
Some fear Obama's aggressive approach to North Korea might collide with the
hardline South Korean government of Lee Myung-bak, who has pledged not to seek
inter-Korean reconciliation unless the North abandons its nuclear weapons
programs.
Lee's policy has led to a chill in ties with the North, with the impoverished
communist state saying it would not accept the proposal from its affluent
southern neighbor for food aid, and that it would live without the South's aid.
The North has also threatened to cut off all inter-Korean ties, ousting all South
Korean officials from the joint industrial complex and a tourist resort in the
North.
The Lee-Obama combination might be a reverse version of the awkward relationship
of South Korea's former liberal President Roh Moo-hyun and conservative Bush.
Roh and Bush had a hard time coordinating their North Korea policy and realigning
their decades-old alliance due to their conflicting philosophies, with Roh
seeking active engagement and Bush designating the North as part of an axis of
evil.
Straub dismisses such a concern.
"Mr. Obama will be not only smarter in dealing with North Korea than President
Bush, he will also be tougher," he said. "He may be willing to present a 'more
for more' approach to North Korea, but he will never 'accept' a North Korea with
nuclear weapons."
The former head of the Korea Desk at the U.S. State Department said, "North Korea
will find itself in an even more difficult position if North Korea rejects Mr.
Obama's efforts to resolve the nuclear and other issues which will have
credibility with the international community."
Frank Jannuzi, a key foreign policy adviser for Obama, echoed Straub's theme,
saying, "I think when Senator Obama talked about his own willingness to engage
directly North Korea, it doesn't mean he will get on the airplane on Jan. 25th to
fly to Pyongyang."
Jannuzi said that the "fundamental change" Obama will bring to the White House is
building "mutual respect and trust" just like former U.S. President Jimmy Carter
did to mediate the Geneva nuclear agreement in 1994, with "some important measure
of respect for North Korean leader Kim Il-sung."
The aide said the Obama administration will support the six-party nuclear talks
while seeking "direct high-level engagement" concurrently for the North
denuclearization in a "verifiable, genuine and complete" manner.
"We cannot accept any half solution to this problem. We need a complete
solution," he said. "To do this, we have to do step by step -- normalize
relations, lift sanctions, provide security guarantees, energy and economic
development assistance to North Korea so they could feel that is in their best
interest."
Jannuzi said he expects South Korean President Lee will eventually join Obama in
engaging North Korea, saying no one will be able to communicate with North Korea
through pressure and threats, as the reclusive state has become well accustomed
to that approach over the past 60 years.
Under the Obama presidency, the U.S. will also likely seek stronger tripartite
cooperation with Japan for effective policy coordination toward the North.
"Mr. Obama will consult and coordinate closely with the Republic of Korea and
Japan, both bilaterally and trilaterally," Straub said. "He will of course
support the six-party talks. Mr. Obama highly values the United States' alliance
with the Republic of Korea."
South Korea, however, has been cool on cooperation with Japan, citing Japan's
failure to properly apologize for its past colonial rule of Korea.
Senior Japanese officials and politicians have periodically tried to whitewash
past militarism in school textbooks, and Japan has claimed sovereignty over the
South Korean islets of Dokdo to the outrage of South Koreans who harbor bitter
memories of Japanese colonial rule.
The Bush administration has often been stymied by the history dispute between its
two major allies in Northeast Asia as they need to cooperate closely to cope with
North Korea's nuclear ambitions and other security issues.
South Korea and Japan do not have a security alliance and maintain limited
defense cooperation, although they each have alliance with the U.S.
On the pending bilateral Free Trade Agreement, Obama will likely get tough, as he
has taken issue with the automobile trade imbalance on several occasions over the
past months.
Straub said Obama supports free trade, but added, "Obama will have further
discussions with the Republic of Korea with an aim to making adjustments to pass
the KORUS FTA."
In the third and last presidential debate late last month, Obama said, "When it
comes to South Korea, we've got a trade agreement up right now -- they are
sending hundreds of thousands of South Korean cars into the United States --
that's all good, (but) we can only get 4,000 to 5,000 into South Korea."
"That is not free trade," he said. "We've got to have a president who is going to
be advocating on behalf of American businesses and American workers."
Obama also called for the Korea-U.S. FTA to include enforceable labor and
environmental standards.
South Korean diplomats here say Obama during the campaign has stopped short of
favoring renegotiation of the bilateral FTA, although he dismissed it as "badly
flawed" and complained about the auto trade imbalance.
"The Obama presidency might be more helpful to the congressional ratification of
the Korea-U.S. FTA than under the McCain presidency as Obama can easily win
support from the Democratic-controlled Congress," one diplomat said, asking
anonymity.
Jannuzi said Obama will submit the FTA for ratification early next year, without
elaborating on the timing.
The adviser, however, set several preconditions, including the "strengthening of
the access of American automobile exports to Korea, taking steps to make sure
workers who might lose their jobs will get job training and unemployment and
health insurance, and solving the beef issue."
He said the beef issue has been mostly solved, but added, "we've got still a
little bit more to do," apparently referring to South Korea's ban on imports of
beef from cattle older than 30 months old which are considered more susceptible
to mad cow disease.
Jannuzi said Obama opposes the bilateral FTA "as it is drafted, because he felt
it failed to address some key things that need to be addressed," but added
Obama's opposition is "not forever" and that "as president, he will do the things
necessary to see its ratification is possible."
hdh@yna.co.kr
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