Obama may offer N. Korea chance for 'Big Deal'

By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Nov. 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea, apparently nostalgic for the Clinton era,
might be emboldened by Barack Obama's election as U.S. president, but experts
caution Pyongyang against excessive optimism.

They point out that Obama's administration will pursue a policy of direct
engagement with the communist regime only when it complies with the ongoing
denuclearization process.
Obama supports "aggressive, sustained and direct diplomacy" in dealing with the
North. During a primary debate, he expressed willingness to meet with shunned
leaders like North Korea's Kim Jong-il within his first year as president. Obama
later toned down his plan, saying such meetings would occur only after adequate
preparations.
"Early in the Obama administration, I expect Washington will make a high-level
statement that the U.S. is prepared to normalize relations with Pyongyang and
sign a peace treaty ending the Korean War, but only after North Korea has
completely eliminated its nuclear weapons and dismantled its nuclear facilities,"
Gary Samore, vice president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, said in an
e-mail interview. The 1950-53 war ended with an armistice.
North Korea may have reason to expect Obama to follow in the footsteps of his
party predecessor, Bill Clinton, who agreed to provide the energy-strapped
country with light-water reactors and considered a trip to Pyongyang.
The Obama camp's foreign policy team includes Madeleine Albright, who met with
the North Korean leader in Pyongyang during the waning days of the Clinton
administration in response to the North's Vice-Marshall Jo Myong-rok's trip to
Washington.
However, the conciliatory mood turned icy with the inception of the Bush
administration. For much of its tenure, the Republican government took an
uncompromising approach to Pyongyang, although it softened its stance following
the North's nuclear test in October 2006. Last month, President George W. Bush
rescinded the two-decade-long designation of North Korea as a state sponsor of
terrorism in return for its acceptance of a plan to verify its nuclear claims.
"For North Korea, eight years of waiting is over. North Korea views Obama's
election as an opportunity to eliminate mistrust and hostile policies between the
two sides," Kim Seong-bae, senior researcher at Institute for National Security
Strategy in Seoul, said. "North Korea and the U.S. will have more direct
negotiations."
He said the Obama administration may pursue a resolution to the nuclear crisis
through a "big deal" or grand bargain, using light-water reactors and
normalization of ties with Pyongyang as bargaining chips. The U.S. may also
bring the missile and human rights issues to the negotiating table, Kim said.
"I don't think Obama's election will automatically lead to a deal. It would take
several months to form a new diplomatic team and have consultations with related
nations on the North Korean issue," he said. "Negotiations with North Korea are
expected to get underway in full swing in the latter half of next year after the
new government handles the issue of pulling out troops from Iraq.
He said Pyongyang will be more active in talks with Washington, with the aim of
normalizing bilateral relations no later than 2012 to mark the 100th anniversary
of the birth of its founding leader, Kim Il-sung.
Lending credence to the prospects for brisk direct talks are recent comments by
Obama's key foreign policy adviser, Frank Jannuzi. He commented on the need for
North Korea and the U.S. to establish a diplomatic mission in each other's
capitals to facilitate the dismantlement of the North Korean nuclear program,
according to South Korean experts who met Jannuzi last month.
South Korean government officials, however, say it is still too early to paint a
rosy picture.
"As shown so far, talks with North Korea are unpredictable and progress largely
depends on its attitude," a Foreign Ministry official said, asking not to be
named. "Most of all, the current situation is different from that of the Clinton
era."
North Korea wants to be acknowledged as a nuclear power, and the six-party talks
on the nuclear crisis are now in place, he added. The Bush administration in 2003
launched the Beijing-based talks also attended by South Korea, China, Russia and
Japan in 2003, and in 2004 called Clinton's Agreed Framework with the North in
2004 a "failure."
Samore, who served as the deputy for the U.S. delegation that negotiated the
bilateral deal, said the Obama administration will not make reckless concessions.
"I expect it to basically continue the current strategy to disarm North Korea
through 'action for action' incremental steps under the auspices of the six-party
talks," he said. "The Obama administration will want to make a strong statement
that it is not willing to accept or tolerate North Korea as a nuclear-armed
power."
Samore said the North's alleged uranium enrichment program and proliferation may
emerge as main sticking points again.
"Assuming that the disablement of the Yongbyon facilities and verification of
North Korea's plutonium declaration is completed (or almost finished) by the time
Obama takes office at the end of January, the next important step will be
declaration and verification of North Korea's secret enrichment program and
proliferation activities," he said.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)