Obama win likely to widen N. Korea's footing in relations with Seoul

By Shim Sun-ah
SEOUL, Nov. 5 (Yonhap) -- The election of U.S. Democrat Barack Obama will likely
widen North Korea's footing in its campaign to push Seoul back to an engagement
policy pursued by his two liberal predecessors.

Obama has expressed his willingness to hold direct talks with North Korean leader
Kim Jong-il and called for the need to resolve Kim's nuclear arms ambitions
through peaceful dialogue.
Analysts see a victory by Obama, who is an advocate of the Clinton
administration's policy of engaging North Korea, as likely to help defuse tension
on the peninsula in the long term. But North Korea is unlikely to show immediate
interest in mending worsening ties with South Korea, focusing instead only on
improving relations with the United States and recovering its economy, they said.
"North Korea, in the short term, would not respond to South Korea's calls to
restore relations in a bid to press it to change North Korea policy," Cho
Seong-ryeol, a senior fellow at Seoul's Institute for National Security Strategy,
told Yonhap News Agency by phone.
The two Koreas' once reconciliatory ties turned chilly after South Korean
President Lee Myung-bak -- a staunchly pro-U.S. conservative -- took office in
late February. Lee has said big economic cooperation programs with the North
signed at last year's summit between his predecessor Roh Moo-hyun and North
Korean leader Kim will proceed pending progress in the communist state's nuclear
disarmament, a position which irritated Pyongyang.
Pyongyang has spurned Lee's repeated dialogue offer and stepped up harsh rhetoric
against him and his government.
Last month, the North threatened to cut all ties with South Korea if its
conservative government continues to pursue "a confrontational racket" while
talking duplicitously about peace and reconciliatory dialogue with Pyongyang.
Cho said inter-Korean dialogue will be able to resume when Seoul changes its
policy toward the North in coordination with the new U.S. government's East Asia
policy, expected to come out around next spring.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul,
predicted the current stall in inter-Korean relations will likely continue unless
Lee changes his approach toward the communist nation.
"Chances are North Korea will rather increasingly try to sideline South Korea
should its relations with the U.S. improve and cooperation with China strengthen
after Obama takes office," the expert said. "Pyongyang, of course, feels the need
to improve ties with Seoul but would not return to dialogue unless Seoul changes
its stance first."
South Korea is a stable donor of food, fertilizer and other forms of aid to North
Korea. It is questionable if Pyongyang would try to exchange food for its
self-esteem, he said.
North Korea did not request annual shipment of humanitarian aid from the South
for this year amid chilly ties.
There is another unsolved dispute between the two Koreas: the mysterious shooting
death in early July of a middle-aged South Korean tourist to a North Korean
mountain resort.
North Korea claimed its soldier shot the woman to death because she entered a
fenced-off, restricted North Korean military zone. Seoul suspended the tour
shortly after the death and said it will be resumed only if Pyongyang take
"sincere measures," including a joint investigation and a pledge to prevent
recurrence of such an incident. The North refuses to apologize or comply with the
demand.
"North Korea is currently taking a diplomatic path, weighing relations with the
U.S. over those with South Korea or Japan," said Yoon Deok-min, a research fellow
of the Institute of foreign Affairs and National Security, a state think tank.
Some others, however, forecast no drastic change in the U.S. policy on North
Korea after Obama's win.
Both of the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties have common principles of
foreign policy -- protection of free democracy and human rights as well as strong
counteraction to security threats, they noted.
"North Korea also may not have too many expectations for change as it has learnt
from eight years of negotiations with the Clinton administration," Ryu Gil-jae,
professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said in a piece
contributed to a local newspaper.
Pyongyang may try to repeat its so-called "salami" tactics and slow down the
six-party denuclearization process to take an upper hand in the future six-party
negotiations or to test the new U.S. government in its early years, he said.
Yoon said Pyongyang would respond to Seoul's call for dialogue when it needs
Seoul's help. Until then, North Korea may return to its nuclear brinkmanship to
demand direct negotiations with the new U.S. administration rather than the
current six-party denuclearization talks, he said. Four other parties are China,
Japan, Russia and South Korea. Seoul, in this case, can hardly expect any
reconciliatory talks with Pyongyang for the time being, he said.
Cho advised Seoul not to hastily alter its North Korea policy to cope with the
changed environment.
"North Korea will demand more if the South Korean government tries to make any
change in its policy at the present time," he said.
sshim@yna.co.kr
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